AI Server Boom Outpaces U.S. Grid Buildout

AI servers power surging demand, yet U.S. grid capacity trails shipments as midterm politics raise deferral risk.

Key Highlights

• Power: Data center power use keeps accelerating.
• Shift: Growth centers on AI servers, share climbing.
• Gap: Demand outpaces grid delivery, gap widest in U.S.
• Risk: U.S. delays cluster in PJM, ERCOT, MISO.
• Policy: Midterms make data centers bipartisan, rules tighten.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

• AI Servers Lift Data Center Power Share in 2027, Driving Two Straight Years of Strong Growth

2. Discrepancy Between Shipment-Implied Demand and Grid-Deliverable Capacity Will Expand Starting in 2026, and This Gap Will Widen Even More by 2028

• US Shipment-Implied Demand by 2030 Is Set to Significantly Outpace Grid-Deliverable Capacity

3. US to Face Significant Deferral Risk before 2030 on PJM, ERCOT, and MISO

• Deferral Risks of the US before 2030 Concentrated on PJM, ERCOT, and MISO, Accounting for the Vast Majority when Combined

4. Data Centers as a Bipartisan Issue During Midterm Elections; U.S. State Regulation Now Moving as Fast as the Build-Out

5. Continuance of Relentless Growth on AI Servers to Rely on Establishment Progress of Data Centers in Long Term