Africa B2C E-Commerce & Payments 2026: Instant Payments, Infrastructure, and South Africa Deep Dive

Description

Africa's B2C E-Commerce Is Forecast to Surpass USD 1 Trillion by 2033 as Mobile Adoption Accelerates

As mobile-first connectivity scales, fintech platforms expand, and real-time payment systems mature, these trends are jointly reshaping Africa's digital commerce ecosystem.

Key Forecast Highlights

Africa's E-Commerce market is forecast to grow from USD 317 billion in 2024 to over USD 1 trillion by 2033.
Instant payment transaction volumes exceeded 64 billion by 2024, with values approaching USD 2 trillion.
Smartphone adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise from over 50% in 2024 to more than 80% by 2030.

Africa's B2C E-Commerce Is Forecast to Enter a Phase of Structural Expansion

Africa's E-Commerce market is forecast to expand rapidly, driven by rising smartphone penetration, expanding internet access, and growing consumer familiarity with online platforms. B2C remains the dominant business model, with market activity concentrated in essential services and everyday retail. South Africa leads the continent in scale and maturity, followed by Nigeria and Egypt, while fragmented infrastructure and trust-related constraints continue to shape uneven adoption.

Africa's Payments Ecosystem Is Shifting Toward Mobile and Instant Models

Africa's payments landscape has evolved through structural leapfrogging, with mobile payments replacing cash as the primary transaction infrastructure. Mobile payments now support E-Commerce, business, and government transactions, embedding financial services into everyday activity. Instant payment systems function as core digital infrastructure, enabling real-time, low-cost transfers, although interoperability and cross-border scalability remain structurally constrained.

Liquidity and Settlement Constraints Continue to Shape Payment Scalability

Africa's ability to scale digital payments is increasingly determined by liquidity management, settlement speed, and execution-layer infrastructure rather than demand alone. Structural fragmentation across currencies and jurisdictions continues to influence scalability, while real-time settlement mechanisms and treasury optimization are improving system efficiency. These factors collectively shape the pace and sustainability of digital payments growth across the continent.

Product Code: 1712

1. Executive Overview

1.1. Key Takeaways
1.2. Management Summary

2. Africa Digital Commerce & Infrastructure

2.1. Sectional Key Takeaways
2.2. Structural Foundations of Digital Commerce
- MENA: B2C E-Commerce Market Size, in USD billion, 2021, 2022 & 2026f
- Africa: B2C E-Commerce Penetration, Growth Dynamics vs. Physical Retail, and Structural Enablers, January 2026
- Africa: Demographic Momentum, Mobile-First Adoption, and Market Scale as Core Opportunity Drivers, January 2026
- Africa: Shifts in Industry Structure Driven by Cost Advantage, Agility, and Customer-Centric Design, January 2026
- Africa: Role of Platforms, Ecosystems, and Governance in Scaling Digital Commerce and Payments, January 2026
2.3. Digital & Mobile Infrastructure Readiness
- Africa: Increase in Mobile Internet Subscribers by Country, in Million Users, 2025 - 2030f
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Mobile Internet Connectivity Structure by Region, in % of Population, 2024
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Smartphone Adoption, in % of Total Mobile Connections, 2024 & 2030f
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Mobile Adoption by Technology, in % of Total Mobile Connections, 2030f

3. Africa B2C E-Commerce Market

3.1. Sectional Key Takeaways
3.2. Market Size, Structure & Categories
- Africa: E-Commerce Market Size Growth, in USD billions, and Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2024 & 2033f
- Africa: E-Commerce Business Model Structure, B2C Dominance, and Supporting Roles of B2B and C2C, January 2026
- Africa: E-Commerce Service Type Distribution, Financial Services and E-Tailing Dominance, January 2026
- Africa: E-Commerce Product Category Distribution, Apparel and Electronics Leading Online Sales, January 2026
3.3. Market Concentration & Payment Mix
- Africa: Country-Level E-Commerce Market Share Concentration and Regional Fragmentation, January 2026
- Africa: Key Drivers and Constraints of the E-Commerce Market, January 2026
- Africa: E-Commerce Payment Method Mix, Digital Adoption Drivers, and Continued Relevance of Cash-On-Delivery Use, January 2026

4. Africa Payments & Mobile Transactions

4.1. Sectional Key Takeaways
4.2. Mobile Payments & Frictionless Models
- Africa: Structural Transition From Cash-Based Payments to Mobile Transaction Systems and Adoption Drivers, January 2026
- Africa: Functional Expansion of Mobile Payments Across Commerce, Business, and Government Use Cases, January 2026
- Africa: Role of Payment System Architecture, Interoperability Models, and Integration Pathways in Shaping Mobile Payment Expansion, January 2026
- Africa: Demographic And Digital Shifts, Fintech-Led Value Chain Change, And Policy Catalysts Shaping Frictionless Payments, January 2026
- Africa: Expansion of Real-Time Payment Rails and Embedded Payment Models Across Commerce and Platforms, January 2026
- Africa: Impact of E-Commerce Growth on Payment Integration, Platform Enablement, and Consumer Payment Expectations, January 2026
- Africa: Execution-Layer Enablers and Constraints Shaping the Practical Scalability of Frictionless Payments, January 2026
4.3. Regulation & Risk Environment
- Africa: Policy Frameworks, Regulatory Instruments, and Compliance Requirements Shaping Payments Innovation and Scale, January 2026
- Africa: Cyber, Operational, Liquidity, and Execution Risks Shaping the Sustainability of Payments Growth, January 2026

5. Africa Instant Payments & Interoperability

5.1. Sectional Key Takeaways
5.2. Instant Payment Systems Landscape
- Africa: Role of Instant Payment Systems in Interoperability and Digital Commerce Enablement, January 2026
- Africa: Expansion of Domestic and Regional Instant Payment Systems and Ongoing Interoperability Gaps, January 2026
- Africa: Impact of Interoperability Models and Governance Structures on Instant Payment System Inclusivity, January 2026
5.3. Volumes, Values & Adoption
- Africa: Growth in Instant Payment Volumes and Values Across System Types, January 2026
- Africa: Instant Payment Transaction Volumes by System Type, in Billions of Transactions, and Average Annual Growth Rate, 2020 - 2024
- Africa: Instant Payment Transaction Values by System Type, in USD billions, and Average Annual Growth Rate, 2020 - 2024
- Africa: Enabled Payment Use Cases Across Instant Payment System Types, Number of Systems Supporting Each Use Case, Jan - June 2025
- Africa: Consumer and Merchant Adoption Patterns and Key Barriers to Instant Payment Usage, January 2026

6. Africa Liquidity, Settlement & Cross-Border Payments

6.1. Sectional Key Takeaways
6.2. Liquidity & Settlement Infrastructure
- Africa: Structural Liquidity Constraints, Settlement Risk, and Implications for Cross-Border and Digital Payments, January 2026
- Africa: Impact of Real-Time and Faster Payments on Settlement Speed, Liquidity Efficiency, and Cross-Border Payment Scalability, January 2026
- Africa: Role of Treasury Centralisation, Cash Visibility, and Liquidity Optimisation in Corporate Payments Strategies, January 2026
6.3. Cross-Border Integration
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Role of Regional Payment Corridors in Facilitating Trade, Remittances, and Cross-Border Financial Flows, January 2026
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Constraints Affecting Cross-Border Payments and Intra-African Financial Flows, January 2026
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Role of Regional and Pan-African Payment Systems in Improving Settlement Efficiency and Financial Integration, January 2026

7. South Africa Deep Dive: B2C E-Commerce & Payments

7.1. Sectional Key Takeaways
7.2. Market & Operations
- South Africa: B2C E-Commerce Revenue Growth, in ZAR millions, and Compound Annual Growth Rate, 2020 - 2025
- South Africa: B2C E-Commerce Year-on-Year Revenue Growth Rates, in %, 2020 - 2025
- South Africa: Shift in Online Retail, Growth Divergence From Physical Retail, and Underlying Market Drivers, January 2026
- South Africa: Online Grocery Expansion, Transaction Frequency Effects, and Implications for E-Commerce Scale, January 2026
- South Africa: Logistics Capability, Consumer Convenience, and Checkout Enablement as Drivers of Scalable E-Commerce, January 2026
- South Africa: Impact of International Marketplaces, Import-Led Competition, and Local Retail Resilience, January 2026
- South Africa: Transition From Pandemic-Driven Acceleration to Sustained B2C E-Commerce Growth and Behavioral Normalization, January 2026
7.3. Retailer Capabilities
- South Africa: Factors Important to Success of B2C E-Commerce Activities, in % of Retailers, 2025
- South Africa: E-Commerce Capabilities Compared to International Platforms, in % of Retailers, 2025
- South Africa: E-Commerce Site Profitability, in % of Retailers, 2025
- South Africa: B2C E-Commerce Industry Growth Prospects Over the Next Five Years, % of Retailers, 2025
7.4. Merchant Payments
- South Africa: Availability of Selected Payment Methods Among Online Retailers, in % of Respondents, 2025
- South Africa: Satisfaction Levels With Payment Gateways Among Online Retailers, in % of Respondents, 2025
- South Africa: Payment Gateway Selection Criteria Rated "Very Important", in % of Respondents, 2025
- South Africa: Leading Cart Abandonment Drivers Reported by Online Retailers, in % of Respondents, 2025
7.5. Consumer Payments & Innovation
- South Africa: Likelihood of Trying a New Payment Method in the Next 12 Months, % of Online Shoppers, 2025
- South Africa: Top Payment Methods Desired in the Next 12 Months, in % of Respondents, 2025
- South Africa: Use of Payment Passkeys and Biometric Authentication Methods, in % of Respondents, 2025
- South Africa: Key Challenges Anticipated in Implementing Payment Passkeys, in % of Respondents, 2025
7.6. Local Shopping Incentives
- South Africa: Top Incentives to Shop Locally, % of Consumers Aged 18-24, 2025
- South Africa: Top Incentives to Shop Locally, % of Consumers Aged 25-34, 2025
- South Africa: Top Incentives to Shop Locally, % of Consumers Aged 35-44, 2025
- South Africa: Top Incentives to Shop Locally, % of Consumers Aged 45-54, 2025
- South Africa: Top Incentives to Shop Locally, % of Consumers Aged 55+, 2025
- South Africa: Incentives Encouraging Local Online Shopping, in % of Respondents, by Lower-Income Consumers, 2025
- South Africa: Incentives Encouraging Local Online Shopping, in % of Respondents, by Lower-Middle-Income Consumers, 2025
- South Africa: Incentives Encouraging Local Online Shopping, in % of Respondents, by Middle-Income Consumers, 2025
- South Africa: Incentives Encouraging Local Online Shopping, in % of Respondents, by Upper-Middle-Income Consumers, 2025
- South Africa: Incentives Encouraging Local Online Shopping, in % of Respondents, by Upper income Consumers, 2025
- South Africa: Incentives Encouraging Local Online Shopping, in % of Respondents, by High income Consumers, 2025