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Transformer Report- 2015 - Ed 4

The report analyses the global market for power and distribution transform-ers of $26 billion at ex factory prices in 2014. A detailed analysis of the installed base by type of transformer and ownership is shown.

The report predicts future market trends in volume and value, and ex-amines the factors affecting price; input costs for raw materials, labour, energy and production capacity.

Production and manufacture are sur-veyed and levels of production capac-ity assessed.

The leading transformer manufactur-ers are ranked with market shares.

The changing landscape of genera-tion and the networks with the growth of DER and renewables, energy effi-ciency, logistics, electrification and other issues are identified and dis-cussed.

The global market, regions and 13 major markets are surveyed with de-tailed reports.

The report contains approx. 180 pag-es, 40 charts and 90 tables.

This is the 4th edition of the StatPlan Transformer Report. The report sizes demand for power and distribution transformers in base year 2014 and fore-casts demand from 2015 to 2020.

The report contains comprehensive quantitative data and qualitative analysis about the transformer markets, globally and for all regions and countries.


1. GENERATOR AND TRANSFORMER INSTALLED BASE ANALYSIS

Base year 2014, transformer type

  • By region and 124 countries
  • By type - Generator Trf, Power Trf, Distribution Trf
  • Power generation capacity MW
  • Transformer capacity MVA, number of transformers, kVA per transformer
  • Power transformers - GSU ≥ 220 kV, GSU >35<220 kV, Utility, Industry
  • Distribution transformers - GSU ≤ 35 kV, Utility, Industry


2. TRANSFORMER DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY & INSTALLED COST $

Demand in base year 2014

  • By region and 124 countries
  • By type - Generator Trf, Power Trf, Distribution Trf

3. TRANSFORMER MARKET DEMAND AT EX-FACTORY COST $

Demand in base year 2014, forecast in nominal $ annually to 2020

  • By region and 124 countries
  • By type - Generator Trf, Power Trf, Distribution Trf

4. TRANSFORMER MARKET DEMAND IN MVA CAPACITY

Demand in base year 2014, forecast annually to 2020

  • By region and 124 countries
  • By type - Generator Trf, Power Trf, Distribution Trf

5. PPI (PRODUCER PRICE INDEX) TREND, FACTORS IMPACTING PRICE

PPI trends are shown and the following factors impacting prices analysed.

  • Demand for transformers, market and industry trends
  • Production capacity-surplus/shortage
  • Input prices of:
    • Raw materials
    • Energy
    • Labour
  • The economic and financial climate

6. THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER TYPES AND OWNERSHIP

Transformers are needed at any stage where the voltage changes up or down. The stages and parameters are mapped as power is stepped up from the generating plant to the high voltage of the transmission grid, down to medium voltage for the distribution grid and to low voltage for the end user.

7. TRANSFORMER : GENERATOR CAPACITY RATIOS - MVA : MW

  • By region and 124 countries
  • By type - Generator Trf, Power Trf, Distribution Trf

8. N-1 STANDARD, N-2 CAPABILITY, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT

The number of transformers used in a network has to take outages into account. In the various parts of a network different degrees of redundancy are applied to achieve a cost-effective N-1 standard of security (the ability to operate without loss of service even after the failure of one key component in the grid.) Large power transformers are costly custom built items and no two are the same so spares cannot be stored, whereas MV distribution trans-formers are commodity items and are kept in stock by distributors and this affects contingency planning. This is discussed and different practices outlined.

9. LONG TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050

The long term demand cycle depends on new build and replacement. Power trans-formers commonly have 40 year lives and with modern life extension can last even longer so the replacement cycle is a long term issue. To determine the demand cycle it is necessary to chart the growth of the transformer fleet over many decades. Stat- Plan has charted this since 1900 and the cycle is plotted to determine the demand cycle over 150 years.

10. CENTRAL AND DER (DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES

Distributed energy resources (DER) are smaller power sources that can be aggregat-ed to provide power necessary to meet regular demand. As the electricity grid continues to modernise, DER such as storage and advanced renewa-ble technologies can help facilitate the transition to a smarter grid. DER enter the grid at varying voltages. The impact of DER on grid voltages and hence the specifications of transformers are discussed for Europe and future trends identified.

11. ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Losses in transmission and distribution networks constitute the single biggest loss in any electricity system and 70% of these losses occur in the distribution network. Gov-ernment regulations and programmes to reduce losses with energy efficient distribu-tion transformers are outlined for different regions.

12. LOGISTICS

Power transformers can be the size of a house and weigh over 400 tons. They often have to be transported large distances over difficult terrain with poor roads, over-passes and limited load limits. Logistics problems and solutions are discussed to-gether with their implications for transformers and similar large items of equipment.

13. ELECTRIFICATION

Electrification rates around the world vary considerably and these are charted, with their impact on electrical markets.

14. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND MANUFACTURERS

Production capacity is assessed for different regions and countries and surplus ca-pacity identified, with its effect on prices. Manufacturers are listed with global market shares.

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