Latin America and Caribbean Energy Transition Market Analysis by Sectors (Power, Electrical Vehicles, Renewable Fuels, Hydrogen and CCS/CCU) and Trends

Abstract

Latin America and the Caribbean's (LAC) energy transition is gaining pace. Unlike many other parts of the world with high dependencies on thermal power, hydropower is the region's largest source of power generation. Furthermore, significant solar and wind capacity additions will capitalize on the region's climatic conditions, which will generate further possibilities for low carbon hydrogen. IN addition, The LAC region's supply of renewable fuels is expected to increase strongly within the next decade, increasing at a CAGR of 59% between 2020 and 2030. Meanwhile, although electric vehicles and CCUS are currently struggling to gain traction in the region, policy support along with private-public sector partnerships will help to facilitate future adoption.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) finds itself at a relatively early stage of the energy transition. Although the region consistently achieves high rates of renewable generation, which accounted for 67% of total generation in 2021, the potential of its energy transition technologies is currently untapped. However, this is about to change with large amounts of renewable energy and green hydrogen production capacity in the pipeline.

Hydropower is the largest source of electricity generation in LAC supplying 48% of power across the region in 2021, with the rest being met mainly by natural gas, coal, and oil-fired power plants. By 2035, wind and solar PV will greatly increase in capacity, causing these two renewable energy sources to account for almost 26% of total generation

Passenger electric vehicles have seen slow uptake in LAC, but recent policies in some countries have set ambitious EV targets in the heavy duty and public transport sectors. With many countries already having relatively clean electricity due to hydropower, the potential is high for reducing emissions in the near term with EVs. Several Latin American countries have introduced financial incentives to help remove barriers to EV adoption.

Brazil has long been a global leader in biofuel production and use, mainly producing ethanol from sugarcane. With advancement in renewable fuel technologies, other agricultural and waste products will be used to create fuels like renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

Carbon capture in LAC has little activity, with one operational enhanced oil recovery project in Brazil but no new planned projects. However, a significant volume of mentions of CCUS within company filings suggest that the region's oil and gas sector is keeping this technology in its radar.

Total green hydrogen capacity in LAC could potentially reach over 3.5 million tons per annum by 2030. The majority of LAC's green hydrogen production pipeline is in Chile, which is likely to become a global leader in production of low-cost green hydrogen due to excellent wind and solar resources in its southern and northern regions, respectively. Brazil has significant upcoming capacity as well, using solar onshore wind, and offshore wind.

Key Highlights

Between 2018-2035 renewable power capacity is expected to strongly increase. Offshore wind will experience the strongest growth, experiencing a CAGR of 46% between 2023-2035, although this is largely a reflection of the current capacity being extremely low.

Other strong growth segments in terms of capacity include solar PV, which will experience a CAGR of 11.2% between 2023 and 2035 and geothermal, which will experience a growth of 7.88% across the same time frame

By 2035, the LAC region is expected to achieve 75% renewable generation, exceeding the RELAC initiative regional target.

Adoption of electric vehicles within the LAC region has been slow so far, with electric vehicles holding just a 3.5% share of total light vehicles across Mercosur countries.

Brazil is expected to remain one of the world's largest ethanol markets by 2040, taking one-third of the global market. Brazil will also account for 92% of the LAC region's ethanol production in 2040.

Scope

• Current LAC leaders in energy transition technology
• Renewable energy policies and economics
• Power capacity share outlook
• Power generation outlook
• Largest economies- renewable share
• Thermal power decommissioning emissions
• Major players in solar and wind: owners, manufacturers, and EPCs
• Passenger EV outlook
• EV policies
• Renewable refinery active and upcoming projects
• Renewable fuels market outlook
• CCS/ CCU projects
• National hydrogen strategies
• Upcoming hydrogen projects
• Hydrogen capacity forecasts
• Intended use sectors for hydrogen
• Case Studies

Reasons to Buy

• Obtain the most up to date information on recent developments and policies for LAC's energy transition.
• Identify opportunities in upcoming projects involving electric vehicles, solar and wind power generation, EVs, CCS and hydrogen production in the LAC region.
• Assess competitors based on their active and pipeline capacities for renewable energy generation, CCS/CCU projects and hydrogen projects
• Develop business strategies by identifying the most promising sectors for future growth