PUBLISHER: GlobalData | PRODUCT CODE: 1752864
PUBLISHER: GlobalData | PRODUCT CODE: 1752864
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis
The report provides an in-depth assessment of the HIVs market including disease overview, epidemiology, disease management, current treatment options, unmet needs and opportunities, R&D strategies, pipeline assessment, current and future players, and market outlook.
Over four decades ago, researchers identified the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) as the causative agent of a then-mysterious new illness, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). A member of the Lentivirus genus, HIV belongs to the family of retroviruses, RNA viruses with the ability to reverse transcribe their single-stranded RNA genome into double-stranded DNA and integrate it into the host's genome (Barre-Sinoussi et al., 1983; Gallo et al., 1983; McCutchan et al., 1996). Since the start of the epidemic, around 88.4 million people have become infected, and 42.3 million have died from AIDS-related illnesses (UNAIDS, 2024). In the decades since the approval of the first antiretroviral therapy (ART)-GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK's) Retrovir (azidothymidine) in 1987-the HIV market has become highly competitive, with a wide range of options now available for both treatment and prophylaxis of HIV. This includes the availability of once-daily, single-tablet regimens (STRs) for HIV treatment such as Gilead's Biktarvy (bictegravir/emtricitabine/TAF) and Genvoya (elvitegravir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/TAF), as well as long-acting injectables including Gilead's Sunlenca (lenacapavir) for the treatment of multidrug-resistant HIV and GSK's Apretude (cabotegravir) for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).
GlobalData projects the global HIV marketplace-which, for the purposes of this report, comprises seven major pharmaceutical markets (7MM: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan)-to experience modest growth during the forecast period. The report covers only HIV-1 because the strain is responsible for the majority of diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the 7MM. Furthermore, HIV-2 infections are mainly reported in sub-Saharan African countries, which are not included in the scope of this report.
The model covers the market forecast for marketed products and Phase III pipeline products. The base year of this model is 2023, and the forecast period is 2023-33.
Key Highlights
- Report deliverables include a Pdf and an Excel-based forecast model
- Forecast includes the 7 major markets (7MM)
- Forecast covers the period 2023-2033
Scope
- Overview of HIV including etiology, pathophysiology and epidemiology.
- Key topics covered include current market landscape, strategic competitor assessment, unmet needs and opportunities, R&D trends, pipeline assessment, and current and future players.
- HIV market outlook from 2023-2033, including annual cost of therapy per patient, and total sales revenues per product for each of the 7MM.
Reasons to Buy
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies and identify the companies with the most robust pipelines.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the 7MM HIV market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the 7MM HIV market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counterstrategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1 HIV: Executive Summary
- 1.1 HIV market to reach $32.1 billion by 2033
- 1.2 Gilead Sciences to remain leading player in the HIV space
- 1.3 Despite major advances in ART, significant unmet needs remain
- 1.4 Pipeline STRs will not surpass Biktarvy in terms of commercial success
- 1.5 What do physicians think?
2 Introduction
- 2.1 Catalyst
- 2.2 Related reports
- 2.3 Upcoming reports
3 Disease Overview
- 3.1 Etiology and pathophysiology
- 3.1.1 Etiology
- 3.1.2 Pathophysiology
- 3.2 Clinical stages of HIV infection
- 3.3 Prognosis and quality of life
4 Epidemiology
- 4.1 Disease background
- 4.2 Risk factors and comorbidities
- 4.3 Global and historical trends
- 4.3.1 Total prevalence of HIV
- 4.3.2 Diagnosed prevalence of HIV
- 4.3.3 Diagnosed incidence of HIV
- 4.4 7MM forecast methodology
- 4.4.1 Sources
- 4.4.2 Sources not used
- 4.4.3 Forecast assumptions and methods
- 4.4.4 Total prevalent cases of HIV
- 4.4.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV
- 4.4.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV with hepatitis B virus/hepatitis C virus coinfection
- 4.4.7 Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV on antiretroviral treatment
- 4.4.8 Diagnosed incident cases of HIV
- 4.4.9 Prophylactic population on pre-exposure prophylaxis
- 4.4.10 Prophylactic population on post-exposure prophylaxis
- 4.5 Epidemiological forecast for HIV (2023-33)
- 4.5.1 Total prevalent cases of HIV
- 4.5.2 Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV
- 4.5.3 Age-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV
- 4.5.4 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV
- 4.5.5 Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV with coinfection
- 4.5.6 Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV on antiretroviral treatment
- 4.5.7 Diagnosed incident cases of HIV
- 4.5.8 Age-specific diagnosed incident cases of HIV
- 4.5.9 Sex-specific diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV
- 4.5.10 Prophylactic population on pre-exposure prophylaxis
- 4.5.11 Prophylactic population on post-exposure prophylaxis
- 4.6 Discussion
- 4.6.1 Epidemiological forecast insight
- 4.6.2 COVID-19 impact
- 4.6.3 Limitations of the analysis
- 4.6.4 Strengths of the analysis
5 Disease Management
- 5.1 Diagnosis and treatment overview
- 5.2 KOL insights on disease management
6 Current Treatment Options
- 6.1 Overview
7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
- 7.1 Overview
- 7.2 Better prevention and testing, and earlier diagnosis
- 7.3 Improvements to mental health, social and ancillary care services
- 7.4 More affordable and accessible prophylactic and therapeutic options
- 7.5 Addressing drug resistance
8 R&D Strategies
- 8.1 Overview
- 8.1.1 Stem cell transplants leading to HIV remission
- 8.1.2 Long-acting therapy options for prevention
- 8.1.3 Germline-targeting strategies in HIV vaccine development
- 8.1.4 Two-drug single-tablet regimens
- 8.2 Clinical trials design
- 8.2.1 Inclusion of underrepresented populations
- 8.2.2 Adoption of innovative trial methodologies
- 8.2.3 Emphasis on long-acting prevention and treatment modalities
9 Pipeline Assessment
- 9.1 Overview
- 9.2 Promising drugs in clinical development
10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
- 10.1 Overview
- 10.2 Competitive Assessment
11 Current and Future Players
- 11.1 Overview
- 11.2 Deal-making trends
12 Market Outlook
- 12.1 Global markets (7MM)
- 12.1.1 Forecast
- 12.1.2 Drivers and barriers - global issues
- 12.2 US
- 12.2.1 Forecast
- 12.2.2 Key events
- 12.2.3 Drivers and barriers
- 12.3 5EU
- 12.3.1 Forecast
- 12.3.2 Key events
- 12.3.3 Drivers and barriers
- 12.4 Japan
- 12.4.1 Forecast
- 12.4.2 Key events
- 12.4.3 Drivers and barriers
13 Appendix
- 13.1 Bibliography
- 13.2 Abbreviations
- 13.3 Methodology
- 13.3.1 Forecasting methodology
- 13.4 Primary research - KOLs interviewed for this report
- 13.4.1 KOLs
- 13.5 Primary research - prescriber survey
- 13.6 About the Authors
- 13.6.1 Analysts
- 13.6.2 Therapy Area Director
- 13.6.3 Epidemiologist
- 13.6.4 Epidemiology Reviewers
- 13.6.5 Vice President of Disease Intelligence and Epidemiology
- 13.6.6 Global Head of Pharma Research, Analysis and Competitive Intelligence
- About GlobalData
- Contact Us
List of Table
List of Tables
- Table 1: HIV - Key metrics in the 7MM
- Table 2: Symptoms and comorbidities of acute, chronic, and advanced stages of HIV infection
- Table 3: Risk factors and comorbidities for HIV
- Table 4: Treatment guidelines for HIV
- Table 5: Overview of key HIV marketed therapies
- Table 6: Top 10 deals by value, 2015-25
- Table 7: HIV market - global drivers and barriers, 2023-33
- Table 8: Key events impacting sales for HIV in the US, 2023-33
- Table 9: HIV market - drivers and barriers in the US, 2023-33
- Table 10: Key events impacting sales for HIV in the 5EU, 2023-33
- Table 11: HIV market - drivers and barriers in the 5EU, 2023-33
- Table 12: Key events impacting sales for HIV in Japan, 2023-33
- Table 13: HIV market - drivers and barriers in Japan, 2023-33
- Table 14: High-prescribing physicians (non-KOLs) surveyed, by country
List of Figure
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Global sales forecast by country for HIV in 2023 and 2033
- Figure 2: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in HIV during the forecast period
- Figure 3: Competitive assessment of the late-stage pipeline agents that GlobalData expects to be licensed for HIV during the forecast period
- Figure 4: 7MM, total prevalence of HIV, both sexes, %, all ages, 2013-33
- Figure 5: 7MM, diagnosed prevalence of HIV, both sexes, %, all ages, 2013-33
- Figure 6: 7MM, diagnosed incidence of HIV, both sexes, %, all ages, 2013-33
- Figure 7: 7MM, sources used to forecast the total prevalent cases of HIV
- Figure 8: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV
- Figure 9: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV with HBV or HCV coinfection
- Figure 10: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV on ART
- Figure 11: 7MM, sources used to forecast the diagnosed incident cases of HIV in the 7MM
- Figure 12: 7MM, sources used to forecast the population on PrEP in the 7MM
- Figure 13: 7MM, total prevalent cases of HIV, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
- Figure 14: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
- Figure 15: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV by age, N, both sexes, 2023
- Figure 16: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV by sex, N, all ages, 2023
- Figure 17: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV with HBV/HCV coinfection, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
- Figure 18: 7MM, diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV on ART, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
- Figure 19: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of HIV, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
- Figure 20: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases by age, N, both sexes, 2023
- Figure 21: 7MM, diagnosed incident cases of HIV by sex, all ages, 2023
- Figure 22: 7MM, prophylactic population on PrEP, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
- Figure 23: 7MM, prophylactic population on PEP, N, both sexes, all ages, 2023
- Figure 24: Analysis of the company portfolio gap in HIV during the forecast period
