COP30 Analyst Briefing - 2025

COP30 was held in Belem, Brazil, in November 2025, marking the first UN climate conference hosted in the Amazon region. The summit unfolded as a 'coalition of the willing', where maintaining engagement amid geopolitical fragmentation was prioritized over securing new binding commitments, as no coal phase-out or phase-down roadmap was agreed. Structural challenges - including energy security concerns, rising power demand, and competing economic priorities - constrained ambition. Additionally, the absence of a US federal delegation, a first in COP history, further reduced the scope for multilateral climate cooperation.

Global CO2 emissions growth has been driven overwhelmingly by Asia, with emissions rising at a 4% CAGR between 2000 and 2024, led by China and India. On a per-capita basis, however, as of 2024, the US continued to emit more than China and India, and Europe less than China, but more than India. Despite broad participation in climate frameworks, emissions remain highly concentrated among a small group of major economies. As a result, global decarbonization outcomes hinge disproportionately on actions taken by a handful of high-emitting countries.

Net-zero commitments remain widespread but uneven across major emitters - a divergence that was clearly reflected in countries' updated NDC positions. China and India have reaffirmed relatively late net-zero targets in their NDCs, reflecting their continued reliance on thermal power to meet rapidly growing electricity demand. By contrast, the US - also a major emitter - no longer has a federal net-zero target, following the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Biden-era climate commitments, highlighting growing divergence in ambition and policy direction among major economies.

Following COP28's Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge to scale global renewable power capacity to 11TW by 2030, progress has been made in accelerating renewable deployment. Global cumulative renewable power capacity is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 9% between 2025 and 2035. However, despite this momentum, current deployment trajectories indicate that the 11TW target is unlikely to be reached by 2030, with GlobalData instead forecasting for the milestone to be achieved only by 2033.

Key Highlights

• COP30 was held in Belem, Brazil, in November 2025, marking the first UN climate conference hosted in the Amazon region.
• No coal phase-out or phase-down roadmap was agreed.
• The US failed to send a federal delegation for the first time in COP history.
• Global CO2 emissions growth has been driven overwhelmingly by Asia, with emissions rising at a 4% CAGR between 2000 and 2024, led by China and India. On a per-capita basis, however, as of 2024, the US continued to emit more than China and India, and Europe less than China, but more than India.
• Net-zero commitments remain widespread but uneven across major emitters - a divergence that was clearly reflected in countries' updated NDC positions. China and India have reaffirmed relatively late net-zero targets in their NDCs, reflecting their continued reliance on thermal power to meet rapidly growing electricity demand.
• Following COP28's Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge to scale global renewable power capacity to 11TW by 2030, progress has been made in accelerating renewable deployment, however, GlobalData forecasts that this milestone will be achieved by 2033.

Scope

• Assess the key political and diplomatic outcomes of COP30, with a focus on adaptation, finance, and multilateral process integrity.
• Analyse the implications of COP30 decisions for global decarbonisation pathways and the energy transition, including policy, investment, and sectoral impacts.
• Evaluate remaining gaps, risks, and opportunities, and identify where further ambition, implementation, or financing will be required to align with climate objectives.

Reasons to Buy

• Provides an authoritative assessment of COP30 outcomes and policy signals, helping stakeholders understand what was actually agreed versus what remains unresolved.Translates the political results of COP30 into concrete implications for energy transition sectors, investment trends, and corporate strategy.
• Highlights future risks, opportunities, and regional dynamics to inform planning, market positioning, and long-term decision-making across the climate and energy ecosystem.