Africa Energy Transition - Sectors and Companies Driving Development - 2026

Despite continued renewable capacity additions, Africa is not forecast to reach the halfway mark for renewables in either installed capacity or power generation by 2035, highlighting the persistence of structural constraints in scaling clean power across the region and a dependence on fossil fuels.

Investment in enabling infrastructure to improve grid stability and support higher renewable penetration, such as energy storage, is underway, but remains concentrated in a limited number of markets.

Several transition technologies, including EVs, renewable fuels, and CCUS, remain at an early stage of deployment, while low-carbon hydrogen, despite high expectations in the early 2020s, continues to be dominated by pipeline projects, with limited conversion into active capacity.

Despite steady growth in renewable capacity, Africa is not expected to reach a 50% share of renewable power in either installed capacity or generation by 2035, as rising electricity demand, grid constraints, and the continued need for dispatchable power mean renewables are expanding alongside, rather than displacing, fossil fuels.

While energy storage capacity is expected to gradually grow, deployment remains highly concentrated in only a small number of markets - chiefly South Africa - meaning that the region will continue to lag global peers as limited policy support, grid constraints and financing challenges slow the scale-up needed to support higher renewable penetration.

Electric vehicle adoption in Africa remains limited and uneven, reflecting affordability constraints, weak charging infrastructure and limited policy support; however, growing Chinese investment in vehicle supply, local assembly and financing could materially improve availability and cost competitiveness over the next decade, supporting a gradual uptake.

Africa only hosts 9 renewable refineries, all of which are still in the pipeline. However, recent initiatives, such as the African Development Bank's partnership with Japanese engineering company JGC Corporation, and the European Commission's Global Gateway strategy are unlocking new opportunities for SAFs in Africa.

CCUS deployment in Africa remains nascent, with only nine projects, eight of which are still in early-development stages. However, this is not due to a lack of underlying geology, as Africa features extensive geological CO2 storage potential in deep saline aquifers and depleted oil and gas reservoirs, but site-level appraisal and infrastructure investment remains limited.

Africa's low-carbon hydrogen ambitions remain largely export-focused and policy-led, as ~100% of the region's capacity is still at early stages amid weak offtake signals from proximate markets, such as Europe. However, hydrogen derivatives such as low-carbon ammonia could play a key role in reducing dependence on expensive fertilizer imports.

Key Highlights

• Africa's emissions grew between 2000 and 2024, recording a CAGR of 2% between 2000 and 2024, and reaching 1.5GtCO2e in 2024.
• Driven by steady capacity additions, renewables are expected to reach 46% of Africa's overall power capacity in 2035, increasing from just 28% in 2025.
• Renewables accounted for 25% of the region's overall power generation mix in 2025.
• Ethiopia stands out as the only country in the region projected to achieve and maintain 100% renewable power generation through to 2035, although this is heavily driven by hydropower.
• Gas power capacity continues to expand in the region as it offers a cost-effective, dispatchable solution to meet rising demand, provide energy security alongside renewable expansion, and monetize domestic gas resources.
• In 2025, Africa accounted for only 2% of global energy storage capacity.
• According to the IEA Global EV Outlook 2025, Africa's EV sales more than doubled in 2024, reaching an estimated ~11,000 units. However, according to the GlobalData Automotive Intelligence Center, this statistic represented only 1% of total light vehicle sales in Africa in 2024.
• Renewable fuels and CCUS remain nascent technologies in the region.
• Globally, Africa ranks second for active and upcoming low-carbon hydrogen capacity, with a total maximum capacity of 16mtpa. However, less than 0.1% of this capacity is active. This highlights both a market that is still nascent, but also a slower conversion rate from pipeline to active capacity than other prospective export regions.

Scope

• Africa climate targets, Africa CO2 emissions, Africa renewable energy potential, African leaders in renewable energy and energy storage, Africa renewable energy policies, Africa power consumption and demand, renewable power capacity and generation, decommissioning of thermal power, energy storage capacity, electric vehicle production, EV population data, African upcoming renewable refineries, CCUS outlook, African upcoming CC storage projects, hydrogen policies, African upcoming hydrogen policies, hydrogen capacity by stage and type.

Reasons to Buy

• Assess the current regional emissions, thermal and renewable capacity, and generation share, and identify which countries are driving the energy transition in Africa.
• Identify market trends within the industry, including expected 2030 capacities for a range of technologies.
• Identify who the leading countries and regional players are in renewable energy capacity, energy storage, EVs, and energy transition technologies such as renewable fuels, hydrogen, and CCUS.
• Understand the legislative framework laid out by the region's governments aimed at accelerating the region's decarbonization and energy transition.