Buy Now Pay Later: The Next Chapter

This report provides a round-up of the current state of the BNPL market, looking at regulation, business, and consumer sentiment toward the product. Additionally, the report explores the shifts in customer behavior and regulation that the industry is expected to see toward BNPL.

The global buy now pay later (BNPL) market has grown rapidly, as consumers sought flexible, short-term credit and merchants used installments to lift conversion and basket size. Over the next five years, growth will continue but become more uneven. Mature markets will slow as regulation tightens and BNPL becomes more bank- and wallet-led, while emerging markets will drive expansion due to low card penetration and strong ecommerce growth. Clearer regulatory frameworks are likely to improve trust and sustainability rather than halt adoption. By the end of the decade, BNPL is expected to be embedded across retail, travel, and services, forming a standard layer of digital commerce rather than a standalone product.

Scope

• The BNPL sector is rapidly expanding, with substantial growth in transaction volumes and user adoption. The market is projected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by increasing consumer demand for flexible payment options and the integration of BNPL services into broader payment ecosystems.
• The regulatory framework for BNPL is tightening, with significant changes in major markets such as the UK and Australia, where BNPL is increasingly being treated as a form of credit. This shift includes the introduction of mandatory affordability checks and licensing requirements.
• The BNPL market is evolving with trends such as the integration of BNPL services into broader payment ecosystems and the expansion into new sectors such as healthcare and subscription services. Technological advancements, including AI-driven risk models and open banking data, are enabling more personalized and flexible installment options, catering to diverse consumer needs.

Reasons to Buy

• Track BNPL innovations.
• Identify factors affecting consumer financial habits and sentiment.
• Analysis of the drivers of BNPL.