PUBLISHER: GlobalData | PRODUCT CODE: 2132697
PUBLISHER: GlobalData | PRODUCT CODE: 2132697
The global low-carbon hydrogen capacity in operation increased by 34% from 2024 to 2025, reflecting energy-security priorities alongside climate goals. Near-term additions were driven primarily by blue hydrogen, which represents ~76% of global active capacity. Between 2025 and 2030, green hydrogen is expected to grow at a faster rate, supported by mandates and carbon-intensity-linked incentives such as the EU's RED III. This outlook underpins strong long-term electrolyzer demand, although near-term electrolyzer overcapacity is weighing on orders and slowing market growth.
Near-term deployment across the four main electrolyzer technologies, alkaline, proton exchange membrane, anion exchange membrane, and solid oxide electrolysis, is being driven more by bankability and supply-chain cost and maturity than by pure technical performance. Alkaline holds the largest share, projected at around 51% of 2030 installed capacity. PEM is growing due to its modularity, scalability, and strong fit with renewable integration, but uptake is constrained by higher capex and delays or cancellations in some large renewables-linked projects. Solid oxide electrolysis is advancing through scale-up milestones. Anion exchange membrane is still emerging, with adoption limited by ongoing validation of long-term performance and bankability.
According to the IEA, China accounts for roughly 60% of global electrolyzer manufacturing capacity. This scale helps underpin Chinese manufacturers' competitive positioning, with firms such as Sungrow and LONGi extending their advantage.
By contrast, Western manufacturers are more exposed to the headwinds facing the green hydrogen market, most notably high project costs and limited offtake demand.
Electrolyzer policy is evolving from deployment support to a broader industrial strategy focused on manufacturing location and supply-chain control. Governments are increasingly using incentives and standards not only to accelerate hydrogen rollout, but also to anchor production capacity domestically.