Power Prices Face Downward Pressure in the Short Term: North America Power and Renewables October 2023 Short-Term Outlook

Report Summary:

After a slow start to 2023, extreme heat over the summer finally brought with it some volatility (without strong natural gas prices, as was the case in 2022), but this was mostly felt in ERCOT. As a result, forward curves have more or less tracked natural gas prices in most markets, again apart from ERCOT which witnessed a steep climb in future power prices with little-to-no movement on the natural gas price side. Overall, with cheap natural gas prices forecasted on the horizon, along with a growing amount of renewable capacity (over 60 GW of solar and wind capacity in the next five years), current expectations are for prices to resemble 2021 in most markets as opposed to the fireworks witnessed in 2022 and 2023.