PUBLISHER: Global Industry Analysts, Inc. | PRODUCT CODE: 1733464
PUBLISHER: Global Industry Analysts, Inc. | PRODUCT CODE: 1733464
Global Co-Refining Market to Reach US$52.7 Billion by 2030
The global market for Co-Refining estimated at US$40.8 Billion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$52.7 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.4% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Crude Oil Co-Refining, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 5.8% CAGR and reach US$20.3 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Biomass Co-Refining segment is estimated at 3.1% CAGR over the analysis period.
The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$11.1 Billion While China is Forecast to Grow at 8.2% CAGR
The Co-Refining market in the U.S. is estimated at US$11.1 Billion in the year 2024. China, the world's second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$11.0 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 8.2% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.7% and 3.5% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 2.5% CAGR.
Global Co-Refining Market - Key Trends & Drivers Summarized
Why Is Co-Refining Emerging as a Transitional Strategy in the Decarbonization of Liquid Fuels?
Co-refining has emerged as a critical pathway in the global energy transition, enabling petroleum refineries to incorporate renewable feedstocks such as bio-oils, fats, and greases into conventional refining processes to produce lower-carbon fuels. Rather than constructing standalone biorefineries, energy companies are increasingly leveraging existing infrastructure to co-process biomass-derived intermediates alongside crude oil, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining production continuity and cost efficiency.
The appeal of co-refining lies in its ability to blend sustainability with scalability. It supports the production of renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and other drop-in fuels that meet international standards without requiring modifications to engines, pipelines, or storage facilities. In an industry under intense pressure to reduce Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, co-refining offers an immediate, capital-efficient decarbonization lever while longer-term infrastructure transitions are still underway.
What Technological Advances Are Expanding Feedstock Flexibility and Process Integration?
Technological innovation is enabling greater integration of diverse renewable feedstocks into traditional refining units. Hydroprocessing units-especially hydrocrackers and hydrotreaters-are being modified to accept bio-oils derived from waste fats, vegetable oils, lignocellulosic biomass, and pyrolysis oils. Catalytic co-processing techniques are being developed to handle high oxygen content, stabilize reactive intermediates, and minimize catalyst deactivation. These innovations reduce the need for feedstock pretreatment and improve yield efficiency.
Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units are also being explored for co-refining applications, particularly in facilities aiming to produce gasoline-range hydrocarbons from renewable sources. Advanced modeling and process simulation tools are assisting refiners in optimizing feed ratios, minimizing carbon loss, and maximizing product selectivity. Integration with hydrogen production systems-such as green hydrogen or hydrogen from renewable natural gas (RNG)-is being explored to further enhance the carbon intensity (CI) profile of final fuel products.
Lifecycle assessment and real-time emissions tracking are becoming integral to co-refining setups. Digital twins and AI-enabled refinery control systems allow for dynamic optimization of blend compositions based on feedstock availability, carbon credit valuations, and operational constraints. These technologies are transforming co-refining from an experimental pathway to a commercially viable and technically scalable process within both integrated majors and independent refiners.
Who Are the Key Stakeholders and How Are Policy Frameworks Influencing Adoption?
The primary adopters of co-refining technologies are oil majors, national oil companies, and independent refiners seeking to meet low-carbon fuel mandates without retiring productive assets prematurely. In North America, companies like Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 are actively investing in co-processing capabilities to comply with the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). In Europe, TotalEnergies and Neste have pioneered co-refining strategies in response to the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II), which mandates increasing shares of advanced biofuels in the transport sector.
Government incentives are playing a catalytic role. Tax credits, renewable identification numbers (RINs), and carbon intensity benchmarking are encouraging refiners to co-process renewable inputs. In Asia, particularly in Japan and South Korea, co-refining is seen as a pathway to producing SAF for export and domestic use, aligned with ICAO’s CORSIA targets. Meanwhile, Brazil is exploring co-processing sugarcane-derived oils, and India has launched pilot programs blending waste oils into diesel production streams.
Fuel blenders, aircraft operators, and environmental regulators are increasingly recognizing co-refined fuels as credible, near-term decarbonization tools. Certification bodies such as ASTM International and the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) are defining standards for co-refined SAF and diesel, ensuring compatibility, sustainability, and traceability across global markets.
What Is Driving the Global Upsurge in Co-Refining Capacity Investments?
The growth in the co-refining market is driven by a convergence of technological readiness, regulatory alignment, and financial prudence. Unlike standalone biofuel facilities, co-refining leverages existing assets, skilled labor, and permitting frameworks-allowing refiners to diversify product offerings with minimal capital investment. This asset-light model is particularly attractive in a period of margin compression and regulatory uncertainty.
Decarbonization targets across the aviation, marine, and freight sectors are creating robust demand for low-carbon fuels. Co-refining supports the scale-up of SAF and renewable diesel without waiting for greenfield biorefineries to materialize. Furthermore, supply chain flexibility-where refiners can dynamically switch between crude and bio-based inputs-enhances resilience in feedstock procurement and margin management.
Carbon pricing, ESG pressures, and investor expectations are also pushing refiners to reduce their carbon intensity and publish climate-aligned capital expenditure strategies. Co-refining serves as a tangible, measurable step toward net-zero pathways, making it a strategic bridge between fossil dependence and bio-based futures. As certification mechanisms mature and feedstock markets globalize, co-refining is set to become a mainstream, transitional solution in the evolving low-carbon fuel economy.
SCOPE OF STUDY:
The report analyzes the Co-Refining market in terms of units by the following Segments, and Geographic Regions/Countries:
Segments:
Feedstock Type (Crude Oil Co-Refining, Biomass Co-Refining, Waste Plastic Co-Refining, Renewable Feedstock Co-Refining); Process (Hydroprocessing, Catalytic Cracking, Fluid Catalytic Cracking, Hydrotreating, Hydrocracking, Other Processes); Product (FAME Biodiesel, Bioethanol, Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil, Other Products)
Geographic Regions/Countries:
World; United States; Canada; Japan; China; Europe (France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom; Spain; Russia; and Rest of Europe); Asia-Pacific (Australia; India; South Korea; and Rest of Asia-Pacific); Latin America (Argentina; Brazil; Mexico; and Rest of Latin America); Middle East (Iran; Israel; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; and Rest of Middle East); and Africa.
Select Competitors (Total 39 Featured) -
TARIFF IMPACT FACTOR
Our new release incorporates impact of tariffs on geographical markets as we predict a shift in competitiveness of companies based on HQ country, manufacturing base, exports and imports (finished goods and OEM). This intricate and multifaceted market reality will impact competitors by artificially increasing the COGS, reducing profitability, reconfiguring supply chains, amongst other micro and macro market dynamics.
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APRIL 2025: NEGOTIATION PHASE
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JULY 2025 FINAL TARIFF RESET
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