PUBLISHER: Global Industry Analysts, Inc. | PRODUCT CODE: 1733910
PUBLISHER: Global Industry Analysts, Inc. | PRODUCT CODE: 1733910
Global Green Diesel Market to Reach US$66.0 Billion by 2030
The global market for Green Diesel estimated at US$37.0 Billion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$66.0 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10.2% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Pure Form, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 8.9% CAGR and reach US$41.5 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Blended Form segment is estimated at 12.5% CAGR over the analysis period.
The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$10.1 Billion While China is Forecast to Grow at 13.6% CAGR
The Green Diesel market in the U.S. is estimated at US$10.1 Billion in the year 2024. China, the world's second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$13.4 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 13.6% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 7.4% and 8.9% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 8.0% CAGR.
Global Green Diesel Market - Key Trends & Drivers Summarized
Why Is Green Diesel Gaining Global Momentum in the Energy Transition?
Green diesel, also known as renewable diesel or hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), is rapidly emerging as a key solution in the global decarbonization effort, especially in sectors where electrification remains challenging. Unlike traditional biodiesel (FAME), green diesel is chemically identical to petroleum diesel but produced from renewable feedstocks such as waste animal fats, used cooking oils, and non-edible vegetable oils through hydroprocessing technology. This compatibility allows it to be used in existing diesel engines and infrastructure without modification, making it an immediate, drop-in alternative for transportation, logistics, and industrial use.
The drive toward net-zero emissions is propelling countries and companies to adopt low-carbon fuels, and green diesel is increasingly being recognized for its high greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential-often exceeding 80% compared to conventional diesel. Regulatory pressure in the form of carbon pricing, low-carbon fuel standards (LCFS), and renewable energy directives across the EU, U.S., and parts of Asia has positioned green diesel as a viable, scalable pathway for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, heavy-duty trucking, and marine transportation.
How Are Production Technologies and Feedstock Innovations Accelerating Market Growth?
Technological advancements in hydroprocessing and refinery integration are significantly enhancing the scalability and cost-competitiveness of green diesel production. Many conventional oil refineries are now being converted into renewable fuel facilities, utilizing hydrogenation and isomerization processes to convert lipid-based feedstocks into high-quality diesel with performance characteristics equal to or better than petroleum-based fuels. This shift is reducing capital investment barriers while enabling faster market entry for energy majors and biofuel producers.
In parallel, the diversification and optimization of feedstock supply chains are playing a pivotal role. Innovations in feedstock pretreatment, lipid conversion efficiency, and feedstock flexibility have enabled producers to expand beyond traditional sources to include waste streams and algae-based lipids. This feedstock agility is crucial for managing input costs and reducing competition with food-grade oils. Additionally, the emergence of feedstock certification frameworks such as ISCC (International Sustainability and Carbon Certification) is fostering transparency and traceability in sustainable fuel production, boosting stakeholder confidence and regulatory compliance.
Which Industries and Regions Are Driving Demand for Green Diesel?
Demand for green diesel is rising sharply in transportation-intensive industries, particularly in commercial road freight, public transit fleets, agriculture, mining, and aviation. Companies with aggressive decarbonization targets are increasingly adopting green diesel to reduce their Scope 1 emissions without disrupting operations or investing in new vehicle fleets. Municipal and corporate fleet operators, especially in Europe and North America, are using renewable diesel as a transitional fuel to meet local emissions mandates while preparing for eventual electrification.
Geographically, the United States is a frontrunner in green diesel adoption, led by California’s LCFS and federal renewable fuel standards. Europe follows closely, with countries like the Netherlands, Sweden, and Finland supporting renewable diesel through tax incentives and blending mandates. Asia-Pacific is also showing early signs of expansion, particularly in Singapore, Japan, and South Korea, where low-emission mandates and refinery conversions are gaining traction. Latin America, with its abundant bio-feedstock resources, is increasingly viewed as a potential growth hub, although regulatory frameworks remain under development.
The Growth in the Green Diesel Market Is Driven by Several Factors…
The growth in the green diesel market is driven by several factors rooted in feedstock innovation, refinery conversion strategies, and application-specific adoption trends. On the technology front, advances in hydroprocessing efficiency, flexible co-processing capabilities, and hydrogen sourcing are reducing production costs and expanding output capacity. Many oil majors are investing in dedicated renewable diesel plants or converting traditional refineries to handle bio-based feedstocks, thereby creating a robust global supply network.
In terms of end-use dynamics, the increasing preference for low-carbon liquid fuels in heavy transport, off-road machinery, and aviation is expanding demand beyond traditional biodiesel markets. Fleet owners and industrial users are embracing green diesel as a drop-in, infrastructure-compatible solution that meets both emissions compliance and fuel performance requirements. Moreover, favorable regulatory frameworks-such as renewable fuel credits, LCFS schemes, and blending mandates-are providing strong financial incentives for both producers and consumers. The growing alignment of corporate sustainability goals with clean fuel procurement strategies is also pushing adoption, as businesses seek measurable, immediate reductions in carbon intensity without operational disruption. These factors collectively ensure that green diesel will remain a crucial component of the global clean energy transition, especially in sectors with limited electrification potential.
SCOPE OF STUDY:
The report analyzes the Green Diesel market in terms of units by the following Segments, and Geographic Regions/Countries:
Segments:
Type (Pure Form, Blended Form); Production Technology (Gasification, Pyrolysis, Other Technologies); Raw Material (Vegetable Oils, Animal Fats, Other Raw Materials); Application (Fuel, Power Generation, Other Applications)
Geographic Regions/Countries:
World; United States; Canada; Japan; China; Europe (France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom; Spain; Russia; and Rest of Europe); Asia-Pacific (Australia; India; South Korea; and Rest of Asia-Pacific); Latin America (Argentina; Brazil; Mexico; and Rest of Latin America); Middle East (Iran; Israel; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; and Rest of Middle East); and Africa.
Select Competitors (Total 44 Featured) -
TARIFF IMPACT FACTOR
Our new release incorporates impact of tariffs on geographical markets as we predict a shift in competitiveness of companies based on HQ country, manufacturing base, exports and imports (finished goods and OEM). This intricate and multifaceted market reality will impact competitors by artificially increasing the COGS, reducing profitability, reconfiguring supply chains, amongst other micro and macro market dynamics.
We are diligently following expert opinions of leading Chief Economists (14,949), Think Tanks (62), Trade & Industry bodies (171) worldwide, as they assess impact and address new market realities for their ecosystems. Experts and economists from every major country are tracked for their opinions on tariffs and how they will impact their countries.
We expect this chaos to play out over the next 2-3 months and a new world order is established with more clarity. We are tracking these developments on a real time basis.
As we release this report, U.S. Trade Representatives are pushing their counterparts in 183 countries for an early closure to bilateral tariff negotiations. Most of the major trading partners also have initiated trade agreements with other key trading nations, outside of those in the works with the United States. We are tracking such secondary fallouts as supply chains shift.
To our valued clients, we say, we have your back. We will present a simplified market reassessment by incorporating these changes!
APRIL 2025: NEGOTIATION PHASE
Our April release addresses the impact of tariffs on the overall global market and presents market adjustments by geography. Our trajectories are based on historic data and evolving market impacting factors.
JULY 2025 FINAL TARIFF RESET
Complimentary Update: Our clients will also receive a complimentary update in July after a final reset is announced between nations. The final updated version incorporates clearly defined Tariff Impact Analyses.
Reciprocal and Bilateral Trade & Tariff Impact Analyses:
USA <> CHINA <> MEXICO <> CANADA <> EU <> JAPAN <> INDIA <> 176 OTHER COUNTRIES.
Leading Economists - Our knowledge base tracks 14,949 economists including a select group of most influential Chief Economists of nations, think tanks, trade and industry bodies, big enterprises, and domain experts who are sharing views on the fallout of this unprecedented paradigm shift in the global econometric landscape. Most of our 16,491+ reports have incorporated this two-stage release schedule based on milestones.
COMPLIMENTARY PREVIEW
Contact your sales agent to request an online 300+ page complimentary preview of this research project. Our preview will present full stack sources, and validated domain expert data transcripts. Deep dive into our interactive data-driven online platform.