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PUBLISHER: Information Network | PRODUCT CODE: 1266897

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PUBLISHER: Information Network | PRODUCT CODE: 1266897

The Hard Disk Drive (HDD) and Solid State Drive (SSD) Industries: Market Analysis and Processing Trends

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Both SSDs and hard drives do the same job: They boot your system, and store your applications and personal files. But each type of storage has its own unique feature set. HDDs are considered a legacy technology, meaning they've been around longer than SSDs. In general, they are lower in cost and are practical for storing years of photos and videos or business files. SSDs got their name-solid state-because they have no moving parts. In an SSD, all data is stored in integrated circuits. This difference from HDDs has a lot of implications, especially in size and performance.

SSDs are more expensive than HDDs per amount of storage, but the gap is closing as SSD prices begin to drop. Disk drives are getting a capacity jump from the use of heat- and microwave-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) and a speed boost through dual read-write head technology.

However, SSD capacities are growing even faster. QLC (4 bits/cell) NAND adds 25 per cent more capacity, compared to current TLC (3bits/cell). And layer counts in 3D NAND are set to rise from the 64-layer mainstream and arriving 96-layer product to 128-layers and beyond.

HDDs still offer a cost advantage over SSDs, as HDD storage is as low as $0.03 per gigabyte. However, SSDs still have significant advantages, even at a higher cost per bit. SSDs benefit from improved performance (especially in the move from SATA to PCIe protocol), speed, lower power consumption, increased durability (no moving parts), and a smaller form factor. Indeed, even at multiple times the cost per bit, there are several use cases where the total cost of ownership in using an SSD is far lower than using an HDD. Though the cost advantage of HDDs over SSDs is progressively narrowing, the need for cheap high-capacity storage in data centers will continue to support the demand for enterprise HDDs, which carry higher average selling prices and margins than PC HDDs. We expect the firm to benefit from an acceleration in cloud deployments and subsequent need for massive amounts of high-capacity storage. At present, SSD remains a costly product for high capacities and we anticipate that business-critical storage ("nearline" storage not needed for immediate access) will continue to be in the hands of HDD technology.

The ongoing supply and demand imbalances within flash have created a challenging pricing environment for major players. With Samsung, Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix there is also the risk that competitors will beat Western Digital to producing novel silicon products (such as Intel and Micron's 3D XPoint) that further curb the firm's ability to benefit from flash. Most importantly, despite the addition of SanDisk, Western Digital still relies on HDDs for the majority of its revenue. The attach rate for SSDs within PCs are increasing at a steady rate while HDDs are in secular decline themselves. Enterprise storage provides a significant opportunity for the firm in the near-term, with nearline or business critical storage demands increasing, but should energy efficiency concerns within data centers and hyperscale cloud players increase, this opportunity may quickly evaporate.

This report focuses on the entire hard disk drive market food chain, analyzing the markets for hard disk drives, substrates, and thin film heads. Solid State Drive markets are analyzed. Processing issues in the manufacture of each of these sectors is included and the report details the CMP and Lithography sectors of thin film head processing. Market forecasts of all sectors are detailed.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. The Disk Drive Market Infrastructure

Chapter 2. The Hard Disk Drive Industry

  • 2.1. Hard Disk Drive Trends
  • 2.2. Hard Disk Form Factors
  • 2.3. Hard Disk Drive Market Analysis
    • 2.3.1. Desktop PCs
    • 2.3.2. Portable PCs
    • 2.3.3. Enterprise
    • 2.3.4. Consumer Electronics
  • 2.4. Competitive Structure
    • 2.4.1. HDD Market Share

Chapter 3. The Solid State Drive Industry

  • 3.1. Solid-State Drives (SSD) Trends
  • 3.2. Solid-State Drives Market Analysis
  • 3.3. NAND Forecast
    • 3.3.1. Comparison of 3D-NAND Structures
    • 3.3.2. SSD Capacity Forecast

Chapter 4. Recording Heads

  • 4.1. Thin Film Read/Write Heads
    • 4.1.1. Thin Film (TF) Heads
    • 4.1.2. Magnetoresistive (MR/AMR) Heads
    • 4.1.3. Giant Magnetoresistive (GMR) Heads
    • 4.1.4. Colossal Magnetoresistive (CMR) Heads
    • 4.1.5. Current-Perpendicular-To-Place (CPP) Heads
    • 4.1.6. Ballistic Magnetoresistance (BMR) Heads
  • 4.2. Trends
  • 4.3. Recording Head Market Forecast

Chapter 5. Processing Trends And Markets

  • 5.1. Head Processing
    • 5.1.1. Head Fabrication - CMP, Deposition, Lithography
      • 5.1.1.1 CMP Challenges
        • Ceria Slurry For Glass Disk Market
        • Oxide Slurry For Metal Disk Market
        • Oxide Slurry For Thin Film Head Market
      • 5.1.1.2 Lithography Challenges
  • 5.2. HDD Technology Roadmap
    • 5.2.1. Introduction
    • 5.2.2. Perpendicular Magnetic Recording (PMR)
    • 5.2.3. Shingled Magnetic Recording (SMR) Technologies
    • 5.2.4. Two Dimensional Magnetic Recording (TDMR)
    • 5.2.5. Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording Technology (HAMR)
    • 5.2.6. Microwave Assisted Magnetic Recording (MAMR)
    • 5.2.7. Heated-Dot Magnetic Recording (HDMR)
  • 5.3. NAND Processing
    • 5.3.1. 2D NAND Processing
    • 5.3.2. 3D NAND Processing
      • 5.3.2.1 Etch Challenges and Market Forecast
      • 5.3.2.2 Deposition Challenges and Market Forecast
  • 5.4. 3D ReRAM Challenges

Chapter 6. The Media Market

  • 6.1. Industry Trends
  • 6.2. Media Profiles
  • 6.3. Media Market Supplier Shares

Chapter 7. The Substrate Market

  • 7.1. Platter Substrate Materials
    • 7.1.1. Aluminum Disks
    • 7.1.2. Glass Disks
  • 7.2. Substrate Market
  • 7.3. Substrate Suppliers
  • 7.4. Glass Substrate Supplier Shares

LIST OF FIGURES

  • 1.1. Hard Disk Drive Infrastructure
  • 2.1. Hard Disk Drive Roadmap
  • 2.2. Decrease In Average Price Of Storage
  • 2.3. Heads Per Drive
  • 2.4. Increase In Areal Density
  • 2.5. HDD Market Forecast By Form Factor
  • 2.6. HDD Market Percentages By Form Factor
  • 2.7. Platter Forecast
  • 2.8. Ratio of Platter to HDDs
  • 2.9. Forecast of Desktop Computers
  • 2.10. Forecast of Portable Computers
  • 2.11. HDD Supplier Market Shares
  • 3.1. Change In Memory Cost For HDD and NAND
  • 3.2. Revenues For HDD and NAND
  • 3.3. ASPs For HDD and NAND
  • 3.4. Process Steps For Samsung's 3D NAND
  • 3.5. Technology Challenges for Planar NAND Manufacturing
  • 4.1. Detailed Structure Diagram Of A GMR Head Assembly
  • 4.2. (A) CIP Recording Head Structure (B) CPP Head Structure
  • 4.3. Evolution Of Slider/Air Bearing Surface
  • 4.4. Evolution Of HDD Recording Head Formats
  • 4.5. Market Forecast Of Recording Head Consumption
  • 4.6. Heads Per Drive Forecast
  • 4.7. Market Share Of Head Suppliers
  • 5.1. Thin Film Head Structure
  • 5.2. Critical Features In Thin Film Head Structure
  • 5.3. Spin Valve Head Structure
  • 5.4. Cross-Sectional View TFH Stacks
  • 5.5. Cross-Sectional View Of A TFH Design
  • 5.6. CMP Removal Rates For TFH Wafer Polishing
  • 5.7. Total Slurry Consumption For HDD Forecast
  • 5.8. Critical Lithography Trends In Thin Film Heads
  • 5.9. ASTC Technology Roadmap
  • 5.10. Emerging HDD Technologies
  • 5.11. Shingled Magnetic Recording (SMR)
  • 5.12. Two Dimensional Magnetic Recording (TDMR)
  • 5.13. Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording Technology (HAMR)
  • 5.14. Microwave Assisted Magnetic Recording (MAMR)
  • 5.15. Heated-Dot Magnetic Recording (HDMR)
  • 5.16. NAND and DRAM Spend As Percentage Of Total
  • 5.17. Building Blocks Of NAND Memory
  • 5.18. Capped Cell Structured Memory
  • 5.19. 3D NAND Cell String
  • 5.20. 3D NAND Staircase Vias
  • 5.21. Different 3D NAND Architectures
  • 5.22. Steps In Making A Vertical String (BICS)
  • 5.23. Steps In Making A Vertical String (TCAT)
  • 5.24. Emerging Non-Volatile Memory Comparison
  • 6.1. HDD Media Structure
  • 6.2. Market Shares Of Media Suppliers
  • 7.1. HDD Platter Demand
  • 7.2. HDD Shipment Forecast By Media Type
  • 7.3. HDD Shipments By Media Type As Percentage Of Total
  • 7.4. Glass Substrate Market Shares

LIST OF TABLES

  • 2.1. HDD Shipments by Form Factor
  • 2.2. HDD Shipments by Substrate Material
  • 2.3. HDD Shipments by Application
  • 2.4. HDD Forecast of Prices and Density
  • 3.1. Advantages of SSD over HDD
  • 3.2. Storage Memory Growth
  • 3.3. NAND Sales By Major End Market Forecast
  • 3.4. NAND Supply and Demand Forecast (GB)
  • 3.5. Cost Comparison Of Enterprise And Client SSD
  • 3.6. NAND Supply Forecast
  • 3.7. NAND Market Shares
  • 3.8. NAND Capitalization Scenario For HDD Replacement
  • 5.1. Slurry and Abrasive Suppliers And Products
  • 5.2. Worldwide Ceria Slurry For Glass Media Market
  • 5.3. Worldwide Oxide Slurry For Metal Market
  • 5.4. Worldwide Oxide Slurry For Thin Film Heads
  • 7.1. HDD Shipments by Media Type
  • 7.2. Worldwide Glass Disk Capacity
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