Olive Oil Market
The future of the global olive oil market looks promising with opportunities in the food & beverage, personal care & cosmetic, and pharmaceutical markets. The global olive oil market is expected to reach an estimated $24.9 billion by 2035 from $15.2 billion in 2027 with a CAGR of 6.4% from 2027 to 2035. The major drivers for this market are the increasing demand for healthy cooking oils, the rising popularity of mediterranean diets, and the growing use in beauty products.
- Lucintel forecasts that, within the type category, extra virgin is expected to witness the highest growth over the forecast period due to higher quality oils, especially the extra virgin variety.
- Within the application category, food & beverage is expected to witness the highest growth over the forecast period due to use of olive oil in various culinary traditions.
- In terms of regions, Europe is expected to witness the highest growth over the forecast period due to large domestic production of olive oil.
Emerging Trends in Olive Oil Market
From 2025 to 2027 the olive oil market will focus on traceability of shipments and the discrepancy of quality of olive oil. Volatility of weather conditions will create challenges for the olive oil supply, and concern for sustainable practices will increase. There will be a premium on retail formats. Lucintel predicts this will be the case for other agricultural commodities as well.
- Sustainability: Sustainability will play an increasing role in the pricing and availability of olive oil. The Mediterranean drought will continue into 2025, and combined with other factors will likely reduce the olive oil supply to less than 3.1 million tons. Sustainable practices and the investment in sustainable agricultural and milling practices will play a role in determining brand pricing and prosecution.
- Digital Traceability: Digital traceability will also play an increasing role for olive oil. There will be increasing demand for digital proof of the geographic origin and the means of production. EU regulations will increase the documentation required for food stuffs. The resilient sourcing and production of olive oil will play an increasing role in reducing fraud, and in turn increase consumer confidence. Both Digital traceability and Sustainability will play an increasing role for the olive oil industry for the next 3 to 5 years.
- Premiumization: The shifts in consumer purchasing behavior in 2025 shows the desire to buy higher quality products and are willing to pay higher prices, despite global inflation. Examples of higher quality products within the oil and vinegar industry are varieties of extra-virgin olive oils, flavored oils and vinegars, and products of single-source and/or organic origin. Because of premiumization, oil and vinegar producers have the opportunity to make greater profits, and in turn, cover the costs of producing a better quality product.
- Climate-resilient Production: 2025 is considered the transition year for many olive oil producing countries (Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, etc.) as they adapt traditional production practices to include the use of genetically improved, more resilient olive tree varieties, and more controlled water and soil management practices.
- Packaging: There will be a greater emphasis placed on packaging design and the use of more sustainable, lightweight materials in an effort to reduce pack sizes and better meet the needs of the industry. In the coming years, the focus will be placed on product quality and compliance. This is particularly true for e-commerce, where shelf differentiation is based on product information.
By 2025, the olive oil industry will be more competitive based on proof and assurance of sustainable supply, rather than on volume. It will be preimmunized and digitally traced. First mover advantage will be given to producers who control their entire supply chain. Direct to Consumer business models will help smaller producers differentiate themselves from the competition.
Recent Developments in the Olive Oil Market
Increased investment activity in olive oil in the 2025-2027 period is anticipated as market participants work to improve supply chain flexibility and traceability. Improved harvest techniques have improved the supply of olive oil; however, continuing water shortages, which negatively impact olive production, have not abated. Therefore, the impact of the 2025-2027 olive oil harvests is expected to sustain the level of prices at 2025 levels. Lucintel expects that during the 2025-2027 period, more investment capital will be directed to vertically integrated, branded, and digitally differentiated olive oil companies.
- Production Expansion: The 2025/2026 Spanish olive oil crop is expected to be 1.37 million metric tons. Large crops should improve olive oil supply and prices and benefit food service customers.
- Strategic Partnership: Increased collaboration between retailers and producers has allowed for the sourcing of private label olive oil of the desired grade. In 2025, Walmart's sourcing program for private label olive oil expanded to more than 30 countries.
- Technology: To validate the origin of olive oil, producers have used near-infrared spectroscopy and automated systems. Digital traceability of olive oil has been piloted in Europe. The piloted program involved 12,000 bottles of olive oil and helped producers charge a premium.
- Government Approval: More strict labelling and adulteration controls by European authorities resulted in updated EU marketing standards to be fully implemented in January 2025. While stricter controls benefit larger companies by helping them eliminate low cost competition, they increase costs for all companies in the sector.
- Investment Announcement: Global packaging trends, led by retailers, of reducing the amount of packaging per unit have resulted packaging companies to invest in lighter weight packaging. Automation of packaging and quicker turnaround times to replenish store shelves with private label products are the main drivers behind the €20 million investment by September 2025 in a high-speed olive oil bottling facility.
Irregular demand, especially in the case of premium olive oil, will largely depend on where in the world the health benefits and origin of the product are marketed. Supply will largely depend on prices, and while moderate increases will bring some stability to the market, climate change will make extreme weather conditions and variation more frequent and longer lasting. The most competitive companies will be able to integrate and control most of the supply and distribution chain.
Strategic Growth Opportunities in the Olive Oil Market
Olive oil market conditions are evolving. Climate change and concentration of supply create risks during procurement. Differing demands require different strategies. Between 2024 and 2026, retailers will require more seamless supply while food service industries will be more price sensitive. Lucintel has identified opportunities for suppliers in the olive oil market to establish long-term, reliable sources of supply.
- Traceable Premium Oils: The market for premium olive oils is growing. Wealthy consumers will increasingly demand certified and/or differentiated (single-origin, early-harvest, etc.) olive oils. The European Commission reported that in March 2025, extra-virgin olive oils were sold at a minimum price of €6 per kilogram.
- Industrial and Food Service: Stable blends of olive oil can be produced for the food service industry for various food and beverage products. The International Olive Council reported that in 2024 and 2025, the global market for olive oil was over 3 million metric tons. Therefore, the industry will tend to produce stable and contract blends of olive oil.
- Climate-resilient Cultivation: Olive oil producers can diversify their income by introducing other water-related farm services, cultivars, and systems. The volatility of the 2024/25 production cycle caused by drought raised uncertainty in the olive oil sector. However, adaptation spending will reduce production cycle volatility. For example, Spanish olive oil producers will spend to protect the volume of olives produced and processed.
- Geographic Expansion: The Mediterranean diet is becoming popular in India and other regions, and olive oil suppliers can take advantage of this trend. Spain and Italy export most of the olive oil produced in the European Union. In the European Union, the consumption of olive oil has been increasing and is expected to further increase. In 2025, the consumption of edible oils in India was estimated to be approximately 25 million tons. The Mediterranean diet incorporates olive oil, and if this diet continues to gain popularity in India, the demand for olive oil will also increase.
- Waste-to-Value Products: Residues generated by olive oil production can be used to produce other products. The EU is also focusing on generating additional products from agricultural residues. Therefore, olive oil mills will have an additional source of income by processing agricultural residues and by-products of olive oil production.
The focus of competition will shift to integrated supply chain management, mill investment, and differentiated format production. The circular economy and the health and wellness industry will provide new opportunities for the olive oil industry.
Olive Oil Market Drivers and Challenges
Conditions Effecting The olive oil market Include: Consumption trends, weather, technology, trade, and industry economics. Positive trends include increased health awareness and the willingness of consumers to pay higher prices (premiumization). Negative trends include drought and uncertainty about supply and price. Increased technology and digital traceability improved industry competitiveness. Supply and demand are further impacted by price and volatility as well as concentration of supply. The industry enjoys healthy growth potential during the next 5 years if manufacturers balance the "four pillars" of industry (sustainability, affordability, growth, and efficiency).
The factors responsible for driving this market include:
- Increased Health Consciousness: The consumption of extra virgin olive oil is supported by its positive effect on cardiovascular health, and inflation of consumer interest in unsaturated fats and other health benefits associated with Mediterranean diet. In the 2025-2030 period, greater emphasis on healthy lifestyles by consumers will increase the demand for premium olive oils and boost the market.
- Innovation and Quality: The current trend in the edible oil industry is toward more innovative and premium products. Sales of organic products across major European markets crossed several billion euros in 2024-25, thus increasing the demand for organic and premium oils. Over the next 3-5 years, premium products will help manufacturers enhance their profit margins and gain brand loyalty, and help them enter the high-end markets, including direct sales and food service.
- Digital and International Trade: Easy access to information through the Internet and digital trade will ultimately help consumers gain more confidence to purchase expensive Extra Virgin Olive Oil. Digital labelling, sustainability and origin labelling will help European retailers and manufacturers gain more business in international markets.
- Sustainability: Many technologies are available to decrease the ecological footprint of agro-industries. Over the next 3-5 years, some of these will help manufacturers stay in business and continue operations in regions with high water stress and other constrains.
- Food Service and Emerging Market Expansion: Olive oil consumption is rising among the foodservice and packaged food industries in regions like North America and Asia. In 2025, several food service operators in Asia reported high demand for Mediterranean food and led to an increase in imported olive oil. Olive oil consumption in Europe has been declining and in the next few years, it is expected to diversify its consumption and lower its dependence on the region.
The challenges facing this market include:
- Volatility of Supply: Unfavorable and extreme climate conditions reduce the olive yield and affects oil quality. Water stress among other conditions are expected to remain and worsen in the next few years.
- High Prices: Costs related to the production and distribution of olive oil increase and lead to higher prices. In 2025, the prices of olive oil remained high and unaffordable. In the next few years, it is expected that olive oil will be replaced by other vegetable oils and create high market competition.
- Adulteration, Inconsistency, and Complexity in Regulations: There is little integrity in the edible oil industry. Many producers and exporters erode consumer trust by engaging in mislabeling, blending, and other fraudulent practices, thereby increasing compliance costs. In August 2025, the European Union's food control system continued to test edible oils to determine their true origin. During the next five years, it is likely that greater testing, labelling, and tracking would enhance the integrity of the food system. However, these regulations may particularly impact small food producers, processors and retailers.
There is growing global interest and demand for extra virgin olive oil and other health promoting edible oils. The rise of e-commerce promotes the direct import and export of food. Edible oil producers, processors and retailers should endeavor to fully integrate food safety and quality along the food supply chain. This may involve strategic alliances with food service providers to offer value added products and services. The market is constantly evolving and can be segmented based on the traceability and quality of food. It is expected that premium food products would gain greater market share compared to conventional food products.
List of Olive Oil Market Companies
Companies in the market compete on the basis of product quality offered. Major players in this market focus on expanding their manufacturing facilities, R&D investments, infrastructural development, and leverage integration opportunities across the value chain. Through these strategies olive oil market companies cater increasing demand, ensure competitive effectiveness, develop innovative products & technologies, reduce production costs, and expand their customer base. Some of the olive oil market companies profiled in this report include-
- Deoleo
- SOVENA
- GRUPPO SALOV
- Del Monte Foods Private Limited
- California Olive Ranch, Inc.
- Borges INTERNATIONAL GROUP, S.L.U.
- POMPEIAN
- Cargill
- Conagra Brands
- Modi Naturals Ltd.
Olive Oil Market by Segment
The study includes a forecast for the global olive oil market by type, packaging, distribution channel, application, and region.
Olive Oil Market by Type [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:
- Refined
- Virgin
- Extra Virgin
- Others
Olive Oil Market by Packaging [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:
Olive Oil Market by Distribution Channel [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:
- Supermarkets & Hypermarkets
- Convenience Stores
- Online
- Others
Olive Oil Market by Application [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:
- Food & Beverage
- Personal Care & Cosmetics
- Pharmaceuticals
- Others
Olive Oil Market by Region [Value ($B) from 2019 to 2035]:
- North America
- Europe
- Asia Pacific
- The Rest of the World
Country Wise Outlook for the Olive Oil Market
2025finds the olive oil market with Spanish production recuperating from the drought and with ongoing volatility in the whole Mediterranean. According to Lucintel's last report, in the next 3-5 years, policy and investment will be more important than the level of olive oil consumption.
- United States: In 2025, there was continued focus on the oil processing sector and import/export policies. The U.S. still imports the lion's share of its olive oil (California produces a small percentage of the total U.S. olive production), and, according to the International Trade Commission, California has expanded its olive (and other crop) orchards and is using automated machinery to process the crop. Imported olive oil will likely continue to be processed and packaged (privately) labelled in the U.S. for the next 3-5 years.
- China: The central government continues to focus on the modernization of the rural sector which is fostering the production of olive trees in Gansu and Yunnan. Local olive oil processing will allow China to rely less on imported olive oil. In 2024, China reportedly imported over 30,000 tons of olive oil.
- Germany: Germany is still one of the major packaging and distribution centers in Europe. The European Commission retained the regulatory framework for the olive oil market in the EU in February 2025. As long as these rules are enforced, German retailers and processers have to implement traceability systems along the value chain and test olive oil samples. The framework effects the private label olive oil industry in the EU.
- India: The ongoing modernization of public sector food-processing and edible-oil industries is expanding the infrastructure. In 2025, the oil palm-cultivation target of the National Mission on Edible Oils was increased to 0.65 million hectares. Simultaneously, olive-oil importers launched more products in the premium segment. Policies for the edible-oil industry and the organized retail system are expected to improve the distribution and packaging system of the edible-oil industry.
- Japan: Japanese processers are focusing on developing high-value added food products. In 2025, AJINOMOTO, a subsidiary of J-OIL MILLS, expanded its olive-oil product line. Similar strategies will be followed by other processers to address the requirement for value-added products in the Japanese market.
Features of the Global Olive Oil Market
- Market Size Estimates: olive oil market size estimation in terms of value ($B).
- Trend and Forecast Analysis: Market trends (2019 to 2026) and forecast (2027 to 2035) by various segments and regions.
- Segmentation Analysis: olive oil market size by various segments, such as by type, packaging, distribution channel, application, and region in terms of value ($B).
- Regional Analysis: olive oil market breakdown by North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Rest of the World.
- Growth Opportunities: Analysis of growth opportunities in different types, packaging, distribution channels, applications, and regions for the olive oil market.
- Strategic Analysis: This includes M&A, new product development, and competitive landscape of the olive oil market.
Analysis of competitive intensity of the industry based on Porter's Five Forces model.
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This report answers following 11 key questions:
- Q.1. What are some of the most promising, high-growth opportunities for the olive oil market by type (refined, virgin, extra virgin, and others), packaging (bottles, pouches, and cans), distribution channel (supermarkets & hypermarkets, convenience stores, online, and others), application (food & beverage, personal care & cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and others), and region (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the Rest of the World)?
- Q.2. Which segments will grow at a faster pace and why?
- Q.3. Which region will grow at a faster pace and why?
- Q.4. What are the key factors affecting market dynamics? What are the key challenges and business risks in this market?
- Q.5. What are the business risks and competitive threats in this market?
- Q.6. What are the emerging trends in this market and the reasons behind them?
- Q.7. What are some of the changing demands of customers in the market?
- Q.8. What are the new developments in the market? Which companies are leading these developments?
- Q.9. Who are the major players in this market? What strategic initiatives are key players pursuing for business growth?
- Q.10. What are some of the competing products in this market and how big of a threat do they pose for loss of market share by material or product substitution?
- Q.11. What M&A activity has occurred in the last 7 years and what has its impact been on the industry?