Low-carbon Steel for Data Centres Market by Production Route (Scrap-Based EAF, Gas DRI-EAF, Hydrogen DRI-EAF, BF-BOF with CCUS), Product Form, Emissions Intensity Tier, Certification Route, Application, and Geography - Global Forecast to 2036

The global low-carbon steel for data centres market was valued at USD 3,280.0 million in 2025. The market is estimated at USD 3,960.0 million in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 21,500.0 million by 2036, at a CAGR of 18.4% during the forecast period 2026-2036. This report provides a detailed assessment of the market, covering building carbon disclosure rules, carbon border pricing, certification and allocation methods, the low-carbon capacity pipeline, pricing and green premiums, the value chain, the supplier landscape, and future growth opportunities.

The market covers the sections, plate, coil, rebar, tube, and coated flat products used in data centers, made through a lower-emission route and sold with documents that prove the reduction. As the attribute cannot be tested on delivery, the certification route carries real commercial weight. Steel without a documented emissions attribute, other low-carbon building materials, separately bought offsets, scrap trading, stand-alone verification services, and construction outside the data center sector are excluded.

Directive (EU) 2024/1275, the EU law governing building energy performance, requires new buildings larger than 1,000 square meters to report whole-life global warming potential in their energy performance certificate from January 1, 2028, with all new buildings following from January 1, 2030. The European Commission adopted the common calculation method in Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/52 on December 16, 2025, and it entered into force on May 24, 2026. On the import side, Regulation (EU) 2023/956 moved the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) into its definitive phase on January 1, 2026, when importers of iron and steel and five other covered sectors must start paying for certificates on embedded emissions.

Market Dynamics

Growth in the low-carbon steel for data centres market is driven mainly by regulation with fixed dates. Every new European data center exceeds the floor area threshold, and as designs are frozen years before construction, projects specified today already fall under the 2028 rule. For operators already on contracted renewable power, the building's embodied carbon is now the larger remaining footprint, and steel makes up most of it. CBAM adds a cost tied to the carbon intensity of the originating mill, a cost that widens as EU free allowances are phased out.

Delays and cancellations of announced hydrogen-based capacity are the main restraint on the market. ArcelorMittal stated in June 2025 that it would suspend EUR 1.3 billion of planned DRI-EAF investment at Bremen and Eisenhuettenstadt in Germany, as the business case did not hold even with public funding. As a result, commitments framed around near-zero steel must be met with scrap-based material for most of this decade. Scrap is also limited, especially where steelmaking is already largely electric. The market also faces challenges from the uncertain integrity of mass-balance and book-and-claim allocation, which exposes buyers to the risk of restating reported reductions, and from tenders that price a premium for an attribute buyers cannot inspect.

Multi-year supply agreements covering several sites of a repeated campus design give producers demand certainty for conversion projects. Other openings include low-carbon coated flat products for cable tray, strut, and enclosures, declaration and verification services that serve both CBAM and building disclosure, and reused or high-recycled-content structural steel for retrofits of halls being upgraded for liquid cooling. Key trends include the spread of carbon requirements from the structural frame to the whole building, a shift in buying from near-zero ambition to verified steel available now, and the use of a single product-level data set for both border reporting and building disclosure.

Segment Analysis

The report analyzes the market by production route, product form, emissions intensity tier, certification route, application, data center type, and geography, helping stakeholders identify the most attractive areas for supply, investment, and procurement.

By production route, the low-carbon steel for data centres market is segmented into scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF), natural gas direct reduced iron (DRI)-EAF, hydrogen-based DRI-EAF, and blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) with carbon capture (CCUS). Scrap-based EAF steel is set to hold the largest share in 2026, as it is the only low-carbon route available at volume today, its producers are well established in construction sections, plate, and long products, and it can be supplied at a small premium over conventional steel. Hydrogen-based DRI-EAF is expected to grow at the highest CAGR, supported by a very small base, operator commitments focused on near-zero material, and a few new plants due to start up.

By product form, the low-carbon steel for data centres market is segmented into structural sections & plate, rebar & mesh, hot-rolled coil & sheet, galvanized & coated flat products, hollow sections & tube, and fabricated assemblies. Structural sections and plate lead the market in 2026, as they make up most of the embodied carbon of a data center shell, early carbon specifications focus on the primary structure, and established EAF producers can already supply documented low-intensity sections. Galvanized and coated flat products are expected to grow at the highest CAGR, since the disclosure method covers the whole building and brings large volumes of containment, framing, decking, and enclosure steel into scope, a category long bought on price through distributors.

By emissions intensity tier, the low-carbon steel for data centres market is segmented into three emissions tiers: near-zero, low-intensity, and reduced-intensity. The reduced-intensity tier holds the largest share in 2026, as most available supply, including most scrap-based EAF output, falls in this band, and buyers accept a documented cut versus conventional steel when deeper reductions are not available in the volume a project needs. The near-zero tier is expected to grow at the highest CAGR, driven by operator commitments set around near-zero thresholds, the premium prices that scarce volume commands, and new plants designed to this standard. Its growth is capped by physical capacity, as demand for near-zero tonnes exceeds what can be produced.

By certification route, the low-carbon steel for data centres market is segmented into product-level environmental product declarations (EPDs), mill-level disclosure, ResponsibleSteel & third-party scheme certification, and mass-balance & book-and-claim allocation. Product-level EPDs hold the largest share in 2026, as they are accepted in building life-cycle calculations, match the data needed for the building certificate, and give designers a figure tied to the actual product rather than the mill. Mass-balance and book-and-claim allocation is expected to grow at the highest CAGR, because it lets a scarce low-carbon attribute be spread across conventional output so that buyers can meet commitments before capacity is built.

By application, the low-carbon steel for data centres market is segmented into structural frame & foundations, building envelope & decking, electrical & mechanical support steel, and external works & plant yard. The structural frame and foundations segment holds the largest share in 2026, reflecting the tonnage of the primary structure, its large contribution to embodied carbon, and early specification work on a package that one contractor controls. Electrical and mechanical support steel is expected to grow at the highest CAGR, as whole-building disclosure brings in cable containment, strut, framing, and plinth steelwork, which is expanding with liquid cooling and denser cabling and has so far faced carbon requirements only from a low base.

By data center type, the low-carbon steel for data centres market is segmented into hyperscale, colocation, and enterprise & edge. Hyperscale facilities hold the largest share in 2026, given the volume of construction in large campus phases, the public embodied carbon commitments of the operators building them, and the buying scale needed to secure scarce tonnes on multi-year terms. Colocation is expected to grow at the highest CAGR, as tenants pass their embodied carbon obligations to landlords, wholesale capacity is leased to operators with their own disclosure goals, and retrofits for liquid cooling create demand for reused and high-recycled-content steel.

Regional Analysis

The report covers Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa, spanning 18 countries, the GCC countries, and four rest-of-region groups. The regional analysis of the low-carbon steel for data centres market considers building disclosure rules, carbon border pricing, the structure of local steelmaking fleets, scrap availability, and data center construction pipelines.

In 2026, Europe is set to lead the low-carbon steel for data centres market, a position based on regulation rather than construction volume. European projects face both the life-cycle disclosure requirement under Directive (EU) 2024/1275 and a CBAM certificate cost on imported high-intensity steel, giving them both a compliance and a cost reason to buy lower-intensity material. Most operating and planned low-carbon capacity for structural products is also located in Europe, and Germany, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, the U.K., France, and Spain are analyzed.

North America is expected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by the large pipeline of AI campus construction in the U.S., a domestic steel fleet dominated by electric arc furnaces that makes documented reduced-intensity steel easy to source, and the embodied carbon goals of the operators building these sites. Asia-Pacific has the largest steel industry and construction volume but a small qualifying share, as its fleet still relies heavily on blast furnaces, although exporters serving European projects now face CBAM costs that encourage them to document and reduce emissions.

Competitive Landscape

The report provides a detailed review of the competitive landscape, covering key growth strategies, competitive benchmarking, the competitive dashboard, and market share analysis, together with company profiles that include business overviews, financial performance, product portfolios, strategic developments, and SWOT analyses.

Suppliers in the low-carbon steel for data centres market compete on three different propositions. Established electric arc furnace producers offer reduced-intensity steel available now at modest premiums, backed by product-level declarations that designers can enter directly into a building calculation. Integrated producers moving to direct reduction sell future capacity against current commitments, a position that has become harder to defend after several deferred projects. A few new-build hydrogen-based producers offer near-zero steel in limited volume at premium prices. Advantage is shifting to suppliers able to prove a verified intensity figure for steel they can deliver this year, and to manufacturers that control their own bill of materials.

Key companies profiled in the report include ArcelorMittal S.A. (Luxembourg), SSAB AB (Sweden), Stegra AB (Sweden), Nucor Corporation (U.S.), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (U.S.), Commercial Metals Company (U.S.), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (U.S.), thyssenkrupp Steel Europe AG (Germany), Salzgitter AG (Germany), voestalpine AG (Austria), Tata Steel Limited (India), Nippon Steel Corporation (Japan), JFE Steel Corporation (Japan), POSCO Holdings Inc. (South Korea), Hyundai Steel Company (South Korea), Gerdau S.A. (Brazil), Celsa Group (Spain), and Emirates Steel Arkan (U.A.E.).

How This Report Helps

• Provides reliable market size estimates and long-term forecasts for the global low-carbon steel for data centres market.
• Explains how EU building life-cycle disclosure and CBAM pricing are creating dated demand for documented low-carbon steel.
• Assesses the impact of deferred hydrogen-based capacity and scrap availability on the supply of qualifying steel.
• Identifies high-growth opportunities across production route, product form, emissions intensity tier, certification route, application, data center type, and region.
• Compares certification routes, including product-level EPDs and mass-balance and book-and-claim allocation, and the risks each carries for buyers.
• Benchmarks leading steel producers on production route, documented intensity, and low-carbon product offerings.
• Supports procurement, capacity planning, product strategy, and market entry decisions for steel producers, fabricators, data center operators, contractors, and investors.

Key Questions Answered

• How big is the global low-carbon steel for data centres market today, and how will it grow through 2036?
• How do Directive (EU) 2024/1275, Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/52, and CBAM affect steel purchasing for data center projects?
• What are the main drivers, restraints, opportunities, challenges, and trends shaping the market?
• How much near-zero steel can actually be supplied before 2030, given deferred hydrogen-based projects?
• Which production routes, product forms, intensity tiers, certification routes, applications, and data center types will grow the fastest?
• How reliable are mass-balance and book-and-claim claims, and how might their rules change?
• How should data center operators and contractors write low-carbon steel requirements?
• Which regions and countries offer the most attractive business opportunities?
• Who are the leading suppliers, and how do they compare on availability, documentation, and production route?