Coffee Trade Analysis - Growth, Trends, and Forecasts (2023 - 2028)

The coffee market is projected to register a CAGR of 2.5% during the forecast period, 2022-2027.

Despite the incredibly challenging working environment imposed by COVID-19 restrictions, consumers have still been able to access markets, largely owing to the resilience of coffee producers and supply chains. The impact of COVID-19 on coffee production is relatively minor. According to the European Union's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, lockdown and social distancing measures have caused a reduction in consumption. This particularly affects small coffee roasters and roasters that mainly supply hotels, restaurants, and cafes (HORECA).

Additionally, the coffee industry witnessed various issues from farms to markets like poor labor practices combined with unfair wages, deforestation, air pollution from roasting plants, and irregular pricing of coffee. According to a survey conducted by the Institute for Scientific Information on Coffee (ISIC), 68% of the respondents stated that they often consume coffee while working. This trend is leading to a huge demand for coffee in European countries like Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and others, as consumers are becoming increasingly conscious of the quality of their coffee.

Key Market Trends

Increased Consumption of Coffee

Coffee provides a revitalizing effect as it contains caffeine. It is one of the most consumed and popular drinks worldwide. It is prepared and presented in different ways. As per some clinical studies, modest coffee consumption is gentle or slightly beneficial for healthy adults. The shifting work culture, specifically in the corporate industry, along with enhancing living standards, is further anticipated to boost the demand in the global market. Over the years, the coffee demand has significantly broadened beyond mature markets such as the European Union (EU), United States, and Japan.

North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe are the largest consumers of coffee. According to the International Coffee Organization, in 2020, coffee consumption in the Asia-Pacific and European regions was 36.5 million and 54.1 million (60 kg bags), respectively, which was 36.0 million and 53.4 million 60 kg bags in 2019. In Asia-Pacific, Japan still leads the market, followed by China and South Korea. Long-term demand is set to grow in the coming years, making it potentially one of the fastest-growing markets.

Companies overhauling their strategies in terms of service and emerging contemporary brands to enhance customer satisfaction and gain loyalty is another factor improving the coffee market across the world. This is supported by the emergence of various cafes and increased expendable income levels of consumers. All these factors are anticipated to bolster the market growth.

Brazil Dominates the Market

Brazil produces around 25% of the world's coffee supply. Coffee grown in Brazil is predominantly of the Arabica variety, making up around 80% of the total crop. Harvest season runs from May to August. The global demand for coffee heavily contributed to the early phase of Brazil's modern economic expansion and industrialization.

Brazil currently exports the majority of its coffee to Germany and United States. United States is the world's largest single buyer of coffee, with the North American coffee market accounting for over one-quarter of the global coffee imports in value. The coffee trade helps Brazil remain one of the ten major trading partners of United States.

According to the International Coffee Organization, Brazil is the major producer and exporter of coffee in the global market. According to the Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafe), the main destination markets for Brazil's coffee exports have been United States, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Japan, Turkey, Russia, Mexico, Spain, and Canada.

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