China Dairy Alternatives - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2024 - 2029)

The China Dairy Alternatives Market size is estimated at USD 5.18 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach USD 8 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 9.08% during the forecast period (2024-2029).

Market is driven by sustainable growth in sales of plant-based milk led by off-trade retail channels

• The off-trade channel accounts for the majority of sales of dairy alternative products in the country. Among off-trade channels, supermarkets and hypermarkets are the largest distribution channels in the Chinese dairy alternatives market. The proximity of these channels, especially in large and developed cities, gives them the added advantage of influencing the consumer's decision to purchase from among the large variety of products available in the market. In 2023, supermarkets and hypermarkets accounted for 71% of the value share.
• The online channel is expected to be the fastest-growing channel in the off-trade segment. It is projected to register a Y-o-Y growth value of 18% during 2023-2025. Convenience is the primary motivation for shoppers who have transitioned to shopping for more dairy alternative groceries online.
• Expanding street food culture across China is anticipated to drive the on-trade consumption of dairy alternative products like cheese, milk, and desserts during the forecast period. Fast-food brands and several cafes, including vegan cafes, dominate the landscape for food and beverage franchises in the country. The sales value of dairy alternative products through the on-trade channel is anticipated to grow by 20% in 2025 from 2022.
• Among all dairy alternative products, plant-based milk accounted for the majority share of sales through off-trade and on-trade retail channels in 2022, with a 97% share. The growing consumption of dairy alternative products in diets is anticipated to drive consumption of these products through both off-trade and on-trade modes. The consumption of dairy alternatives through off-trade channels is anticipated to grow by 28.9% during 2024-2027.

China Dairy Alternatives Market Trends

Growing concern for animals and sustainability followed by changing dietary habits is largely impacting dairy alternatives consumption in the country

• The vegan lifestyle is gaining traction in China in line with the growing vegan population. In 2022, the percentage of vegan and vegetarian populations in China was estimated to be about 5-6%. This increased significantly in the last 2-3 years due to the growing influence of Western culture in the country. The larger cities in China, such as Beijing, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Chengdu, all have supermarkets stocking vegan products.
• Among dairy alternatives, plant-based milk like soy, almond, and oat milk held the majority share across the country in 2022. China is the leading country across the APAC region in terms of consumption of dairy alternative milk. Among plant-based milk, soy drinks have traditionally been the most popular in China due to the long-standing tradition of soy consumption and its wide availability. By the end of 2022, China produced over 17.5 million metric tons of soybeans.
• One of the key motivations for the Chinese population increasingly adopting non-dairy products, including butter, is growing concerns for animals and sustainability, followed by changes in dietary habits. Nuts and nut butter contribute significantly toward maintaining a healthy diet as nut butter contains natural and healthy fats. The per capita consumption of nut-based butter is estimated to increase over the forecast period.
• Strong consumption is projected for free-from dairy products in China. More than 92% of the Chinese population has allergic reactions to lactose in dairy products, including flatulence and diarrhea. Yogurt products break down a large portion of lactose during fermentation, greatly mitigating possible allergic reactions. Thus, consumption of plant-based yogurt is expected to grow at a faster rate during the forecast period.

China Dairy Alternatives Industry Overview

The China Dairy Alternatives Market is moderately consolidated, with the top five companies occupying 57.46%. The major players in this market are Coconut Palm Group Co. Ltd, Dali Foods Group Co. Ltd, Danone SA, Hebei Yangyuan Zhihui Beverage Co. Ltd and Vitasoy International Holdings Ltd (sorted alphabetically).

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