Geothermal Energy - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the geothermal energy market size in terms of installed base is projected to expand from 17.35 gigawatt in 2025 and 17.97 gigawatt in 2026 to 29.5 gigawatt by 2031, registering a CAGR of 10.42% between 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by Plant Type (Dry Steam Plants, Flash Steam Plants, Binary Cycle Plants, Combined Cycle/Hybrid Plants, and Enhanced Geothermal Systems), Application (Electricity Generation, District Heating and Cooling, and Industrial Process Heat), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa).

Global Geothermal Energy Market Trends and Insights

Rising Government Incentives & FiTs for Baseload Renewables

Feed-in tariffs and capacity payments are reshaping project economics by locking in revenue streams that neutralize exploration risk. Indonesia lifted its geothermal tariff to IDR 1,450 per kWh in 2025, a 12% premium that accelerated well-field work in Sumatra and Sulawesi. Turkey extended its tariff guarantee to 2030, triggering eight new binary-cycle plants totaling 320 MW. Kenya introduced sovereign drilling insurance that now covers up to 70% of well losses, directly addressing the single largest barrier to private finance. The European Union shortened geothermal permitting to below 18 months, improving project lead times and bankability. These moves convert speculative acreage into investable assets in markets where solar and wind curtailment already exceeds 15%.

Growing Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps

Ground-source heat-pump installations are creating a parallel demand channel that is independent of electricity generation. A 30% U.S. federal tax credit drove a 41% year-on-year jump in residential systems during 2025 in cold-climate states. Germany issued 87,000 new permits as gas boilers are phased out under the Building Energy Act. Sweden retrofitted district-heating plants with large-scale pumps that cut operating costs by 35% and improved seasonal performance ratios. Japan earmarked JPY 18 billion in subsidies for commercial retrofits, pursuing a 20% fossil-fuel reduction in buildings by 2028. Contractors see this segment as high margin and low risk because shallow drilling avoids deep subsurface uncertainty.

High Upfront Drilling Risk & Capex

Exploration wells succeed only 55%-65% of the time in frontier basins, with dry-hole costs up to USD 8 million, making financing difficult. Drilling consumes 40%-50% of total capex, and one failed well can sink a 20 MW project if permeability is poor. Kenya's Menengai field saw only a 38% success rate, causing USD 47 million in write-offs and 18-month delays. Indonesia's Sarulla project ended 23% over budget due to unexpected reservoir compartmentalization. Risk-mitigation funds cover part of the loss, but developers remain exposed to reservoir performance uncertainty, steering capital toward retrofits with known subsurface data.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Heightened Energy-Security Needs for 24/7 Green Power
2. Repurposing Idle Oil & Gas Wells for Closed-Loop Geothermal
3. Cost-Competitive Pressure from Solar & Wind

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Flash-steam plants represented 47.50% of capacity in 2025, reflecting their long track record in high-enthalpy zones across Indonesia and the Philippines. The segment benefits from established supply chains and proven reservoir management practices, keeping drilling risk moderate. However, the global geothermal energy market size for Enhanced Geothermal Systems is projected to expand at an 18.80% CAGR to 2031 as shale-style stimulation creates reservoirs in previously uneconomic hot-dry-rock formations. Pilot successes in Nevada and Utah validated cost benchmarks near USD 4.2 million per MW, on par with binary plants in lower-temperature fields. Dry-steam configurations persist at legacy sites like The Geysers but face a gradual decline as vapor-dominated fields deplete. Binary-cycle technology continues to serve low-enthalpy markets in Europe, where organic Rankine turbines cut water use by 85%, strengthening the global geothermal energy industry mix.

EGS momentum is altering supply-chain dynamics. Service companies with horizontal-drilling expertise are entering the market, increasing competition for casing, proppant, and stimulation crews. Equipment vendors respond with modular surface plants that shorten construction timelines. Combined-cycle hybrids that co-locate solar collectors with geothermal wells are emerging in regions with strong isolation, adding daytime output without new turbines and nudging the global geothermal energy market toward integrated renewable hubs.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific held a 44.27% global geothermal energy market share in 2025 and is projected to grow at an 11.9% CAGR through 2031, supported by Indonesia's plan to commission 3.3 GW of new capacity and the Philippines' streamlined permitting framework. Indonesia's Pertamina Geothermal Energy added 165 MW across three Sumatra fields in 2025, and Star Energy completed a 110 MW expansion at Salak to prolong reservoir life by 18 years. Japan removed drilling limits near onsen resorts, opening 420 km2 for exploration and prompting Mitsubishi Power to propose a 30 MW plant in Beppu slated for 2027. China continues to focus on direct-use heating; shallow aquifers in the North China Plain now supply residential heat at one-third the cost of coal boilers.

North America is experiencing a resurgence as the U.S. Bureau of Land Management issued 47 leases covering 78 000 acres in 2025, attracting USD 142 million in bonus bids, the highest since 2008. Ormat Technologies expanded the Steamboat complex by 18 MW using binary cycles that tap 155 °C fluids formerly deemed sub-economic. Canada's CAD 50 million exploration fund targets retrofits in depleted gas wells, while Mexico's Comision Federal de Electricidad maintains 963 MW but lacks fresh projects after 2015 budget cuts.

Europe, the Middle East, and Africa reveal contrasting trajectories. Turkey reached 1.7 GW after adding 95 MW of binary-cycle capacity in 2025 under a 10-year tariff guarantee. Iceland's installed base is steady at 755 MW, with developers now exporting renewable hydrogen from geothermal electrolysis. Kenya lifted its capacity to 985 MW after completing two 35 MW units at Olkaria V, and a further 140 MW is planned at Olkaria I by 2027. Ethiopia's Tulu Moye project secured a USD 800 million package to target 520 MW by 2029, while Chile's only operating plant remains Cerro Pabellon at 48 MW amid high Andean transmission costs.

1. Ormat Technologies Inc.
2. Enel Green Power
3. Calpine Corporation
4. Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions
5. Mitsubishi Power Ltd.
6. Fuji Electric Co. Ltd.
7. Ansaldo Energia SpA
8. Baker Hughes Company
9. Turboden
10. PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy
11. Star Energy Geothermal
12. KenGen (Kenya Electricity Generating Co.)
13. ENGIE SA
14. Aboitiz Power Corporation
15. First Gen Corporation
16. Sosian Energy Ltd.
17. Tetra Tech Inc.
18. Alterra Power Corp.
19. Contact Energy
20. Fervo Energy

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support