Europe Biofuel - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the Europe biofuel market size is expected to grow from USD 33.29 billion in 2025 to USD 37.25 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 62.78 billion by 2031 at 11% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Fuel Type (Bioethanol, Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel/HVO, and More), Generation (First, Second, Third, and Fourth), Feedstock (Sugar Crops, Starch Crops, Algae, and More), Technology (Fermentation, Trans-Esterification, Hydrotreatment, and More), End-Use Sector (Road Transport, Aviation, Marine, and More), and Geography (Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Netherlands, and More).

Europe Biofuel Market Trends and Insights

EU Renewable Energy Directive III Escalating Mandates

RED III, effective 2024, requires renewable energy to cover 29% of transport consumption by 2030 and sets a 5.5-percentage-point sub-target for advanced biofuels. Member states must transpose the law by May 2025, creating a synchronized compliance wave that has already accelerated investment decisions across Germany, France, and the Netherlands. High-ILUC-risk feedstocks such as palm oil and soy face a gradual phase-out, redirecting capital toward waste oils, agricultural residues, and algae. Germany issued draft rules in 2025 that penalize first-generation volumes from 2028 onward, spurring developers to retool distilleries for lignocellulosic ethanol. France lifted its advanced-biofuel multiplier to 1.5 in 2024, prompting TotalEnergies to retrofit hydrotreatment lines for used-cooking-oil and tallow feedstocks. The tightened sustainability screen is squeezing conventional biodiesel margins but opening room for integrated biorefineries that can fractionate biomass into multiple products.

Fit-for-55 Greenhouse-Gas-Reduction Targets

The Fit-for-55 package obliges a 55% net GHG cut by 2030 versus 1990, with new emission ceilings of 37.5% for cars and 31% for vans in 2030. Renewable diesel and bioethanol remain the only drop-in options for heavy-duty fleets lacking viable electrification routes. Finland's St1 Nordic started a 400,000-tonne waste-ethanol plant in Gothenburg in 2024 to capture this diesel-substitution opportunity. Maritime and aviation are now inside the EU ETS, boosting demand for bio-marine fuels and SAF. Italy's Venice biorefinery began producing bio-marine gasoil in 2024 to serve vessels preparing for FuelEU Maritime emission caps.

Feedstock Price Volatility & Supply Tightness

UCO spot prices in Rotterdam surged from EUR 800 per tonne in January 2024 to EUR 1,350 by December 2025 as renewable-diesel refiners outbid chemical and animal-feed buyers. Rapeseed oil hovered near EUR 1,100 per tonne in mid-2025 after drought slashed French and German harvests. Feedstock now represents three-quarters of renewable-product cash costs for Neste, heightening margin sensitivity. Imports of palm-oil methyl ester have waned under RED III's high-ILUC cap, meaning any weather-induced supply disruption in Indonesia causes immediate European price spikes. Producers are therefore hedging by signing multi-year offtake deals and investing in alternative feedstocks such as straw and lignin.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rising EU ETS Carbon Prices
2. Sustainable-Aviation-Fuel (ReFuelEU) Mandates
3. High CAPEX for Advanced Biofuel Plants

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

The Europe Biodiesel Market accounted for 66.6% of the European biofuel market share in 2025, supported by established blending mandates and widespread use in the transportation sector. However, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) expanded at an annual rate of 25.2% and is forecast to maintain similar growth through 2031. Renewable diesel, chemically identical to fossil diesel, is winning fleet contracts across Scandinavia and Germany because it meets more stringent greenhouse-gas-reduction quotas. The European biofuel market size for SAF reached USD 2.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to surpass USD 10 billion by 2031, underscoring aviation's compliance pull. Airlines are locking 10- to 15-year supply agreements. Air France-KLM is committed to 800,000 tonnes through 2035, providing predictable revenue streams that de-risk hydrotreatment and alcohol-to-jet investments. Biodiesel demand is plateauing as legacy engines max out at B7 blending levels and ILUC caps constrain virgin-oil feedstock. Renewable diesel's drop-in characteristics, coupled with HBE certificate premiums, are cannibalizing biodiesel volumes in the Netherlands and Germany. Niche molecules such as bio-naphtha remain below 3% of volumes but are gaining strategic relevance as petrochemical feedstocks for renewable plastics.

Bioethanol consumption depends on flex-fuel adoption; Sweden's E85 sales increased 12% in 2024 under tax incentives, while Italy and Spain saw declines amid gasoline demand shrinkage. SAF growth is driving product-slate re-optimization at refineries: TotalEnergies shifted 40% of La Mede output to jet fuel in 2024, and Neste plans a similar pivot in Rotterdam by 2027. The hydrotreatment route's ability to swing cut yields between diesel and jet provides margin insurance against demand fluctuations. As ReFuelEU blending rates escalate, SAF production is expected to account for nearly one-quarter of hydrotreating capacity additions between 2026 and 2031, permanently altering European refinery economics.

First-generation pathways from sugar and starch crops controlled 65.2% of the European biofuel market in 2025, but policy ceilings and feedstock costs cap further growth. Second-generation, residue-based plants are moving into commercial viability, helped by double-counting credits; Clariant's Sunliquid facility in Romania delivered ethanol at EUR 0.90 per liter in 2024, closing to within 10% of first-generation economics. Third-generation algae remains at demonstration scale; Dutch startup Photanol attracted EUR 30 million in 2025 to pilot a 10,000-tonne cyanobacteria plant that converts CO2 and sunlight directly into ethanol. Fourth-generation synthetic-biology platforms, such as LanzaTech's gas-fermentation, are forecast to lift their share of the European biofuel market size by growing 19.5% annually. That trajectory reflects corporate-venture funding and falling genome-editing costs, which shorten lab-to-pilot cycles and improve strain productivity.

As RED III tightens ILUC caps, first-generation facilities in France and Germany are exploring waste-oil retrofits or capacity closures. Tereos will idle two distilleries by 2026, removing 400,000 tonnes of crop-based ethanol supply. Investors are favoring platforms with land-neutral feedstocks; British Airways placed GBP 10 million into a LanzaTech project in Port Talbot to secure early access to gas-fermentation SAF. Fourth-generation projects must still prove scalability and cost competitiveness, but the technological learning curve and BECCS credit potential make them a material share gainer beyond 2030.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Fuel Type
  • Bioethanol
  • Biodiesel (FAME)
  • Renewable Diesel/HVO
  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
  • Bio-naphtha and Other Drop-in Biofuels
• By Generation
  • First-Generation (Sugar and Starch)
  • Second-Generation (Cellulosic)
  • Third-Generation (Algae-based)
  • Fourth-Generation (Synthetic Biology/Photobiological)
• By Feedstock
  • Sugar Crops (Sugarcane, Sugar Beet)
  • Starch Crops (Corn, Wheat, Cassava)
  • Oilseeds (Soy, Rapeseed, Palm)
  • Used Cooking Oil and Animal Fat
  • Lignocellulosic Agri-Residues
  • Algae
• By Technology
  • Fermentation
  • Trans-esterification
  • Hydrotreatment (HVO / SAF)
  • Gasification and FT-Synthesis
  • Pyrolysis and Upgrading
• By End-use Sector
  • Road Transport
  • Aviation
  • Marine
  • Power Generation and Heating
• By Geography
  • Germany
  • United Kingdom
  • France
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Netherlands
  • NORDIC Countries
  • Russia
  • Rest of Europe

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Neste Oyj
2. TotalEnergies SE
3. Preem AB
4. UPM-Kymmene Oyj
5. Verbio Vereinigte BioEnergie AG
6. St1 Nordic Oy
7. SunPine AB
8. Galp Energia SGPS SA
9. Eni SpA (Eni Sustainable Mobility)
10. BP plc (bp Biofuels)
11. Shell plc
12. SkyNRG BV
13. Clariant AG
14. Beta Renewables SpA
15. Borregaard ASA
16. Green Fuel Nordic Oy
17. Svenska Cellulosa AB (SCA)
18. Cepsa Biofuels
19. Biomethanol Chemie Nederland BV
20. Velocys plc

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support