United States HVAC Equipment - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the United States HVAC equipment market size was valued at USD 58.55 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow from USD 60.98 billion in 2026 to reach USD 75.20 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 4.30% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Equipment Type (Air-Conditioning Equipment, Heating Equipment, and Ventilation Equipment), End User (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial), Implementation Type (New Construction, and Retrofit/Replacement), Efficiency Rating (Low-Efficiency Tier, and High-Efficiency Tier), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

United States HVAC Equipment Market Trends and Insights

Growing Adoption of Home and Building Automation Systems

Commercial developers and large homeowners now evaluate new units by their native connectivity as much as by efficiency. Systems with open APIs integrate seamlessly with facility management platforms, enabling schedule optimization and predictive maintenance that trim energy use by 15-20%. IoT-ready thermostats and zoning kits are becoming base-spec items, shortening replacement cycles because legacy units cannot communicate with modern software. Corporations chasing ESG targets view connected HVAC as low-hanging fruit for measurable carbon cuts, driving bulk procurement during capital-planning cycles. Integrators profit from long-tail software subscriptions, a model that reshapes how revenue is earned throughout the equipment life cycle.

Increasing Demand for Energy-Efficient HVAC Equipment

Title 24 updates, minimum SEER uplifts, and smart-grid interoperability rules have triggered field-level specification shifts toward premium gear. While high-efficiency units carry a 15-25% price premium, rising electricity tariffs and time-of-use billing tilt life-cycle economics in their favour. Utilities now pair demand-response payments with equipment rebates, nudging owners toward variable-speed compressors and cold-climate heat pumps. As electrification marches forward, peak-demand fees become pronounced, sharpening attention on kilowatt-level performance during design. Manufacturers, in response, phase variable refrigerant flow (VRF) features into mainstream product lines to satisfy code and financial metrics simultaneously.

High Upfront Cost of Advanced HVAC Systems

Connected, high-SEER heat pumps cost 30-50% more than legacy furnaces, and adding networked controls lifts project budgets by another 15-20%. For single-family homeowners, the absence of subsidized financing keeps payback periods outside a three-year psychological threshold. Commercial real-estate operators have shortened ROI requirements to five years or less, excluding many cutting-edge offerings. While rebates alleviate some pain, funding caps inject uncertainty into long-term planning. Consequently, many buyers stage upgrades, holding on to sub-optimal solutions for another season.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Stringent Federal and State Energy-Efficiency Regulations
2. Accelerated Equipment Replacement Cycles in Aging Building Stock
3. Skilled Labour Shortages for Installation and Service

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

The United States HVAC equipment market size for air-conditioning products stood highest in 2025, when they delivered 47.35% of total value. Cooling remains the core need across U.S. climates, especially in rapidly growing Sun Belt states. Yet heat pumps, aided by federal credits, are forecast to register a 6.21% CAGR through 2031, the fastest among all categories. As cold-climate performance improves, these units take share from both gas furnaces and straight-cool splits.

Regulatory refrigerant bans will accelerate chiller replacements, and vendors that offer R-32 or R-454B compatibility are set to gain volume early in the cycle. Meanwhile, ventilation equipment rises in priority as air-quality norms evolve, and UV-C or MERV-13 filtration is increasingly embedded in packaged units for hospitality and health-care projects. The holistic turn toward indoor environmental quality keeps demand resilient even when new construction slows, supporting the long-run trajectory of the United States HVAC equipment market.

Residential buyers retained a 45.68% slice of the United States HVAC equipment market share in 2025 and are embracing smart controls at an exceptional pace. More than one-third of new single-family homes shipped with connected thermostats that link seamlessly to heat pumps eligible for up to USD 8,000 in IRA credits. While upfront cost sensitivity remains, low-interest utility loans improve the affordability of premium gear.

Commercial demand centers on building automation, occupancy-based ventilation, and ESG-aligned energy reporting. Offices and retail stores pivot toward adaptive operation strategies that cut idle energy draw. Industrial users require tighter temperature and humidity windows for production consistency, reinforcing demand for specialized, high-capacity designs. Though decision cycles lengthen, each transaction is larger, injecting stability into the overall revenue profile of the United States HVAC equipment market.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Equipment Type
  • Air-Conditioning Equipment
    • Unitary Air Conditioners
    • Room Air Conditioners
    • Packaged Terminal Air Conditioners
    • Chillers
  • Heating Equipment
    • Warm-Air Furnaces (Gas and Oil)
    • Boilers
    • Room and Zone Heating Equipment
    • Heat Pumps (Air-Source and Geo-thermal)
  • Ventilation Equipment
    • Air Handling Units
    • Fan Coil Units
    • Building Humidifiers and Dehumidifiers
• By End User
  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial
• By Implementation Type
  • New Construction
  • Retrofit / Replacement
• By Efficiency Rating
  • Low-Efficiency Tier
  • High-Efficiency Tier

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Carrier Global Corporation
2. Daikin Industries Ltd.
3. Trane Technologies plc
4. Johnson Controls International plc
5. Lennox International Inc.
6. Rheem Manufacturing Company
7. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
8. Nortek Air Solutions LLC
9. NIBE Industrier AB
10. LG Electronics Inc.
11. Midea Group Co., Ltd.
12. Systemair AB
13. Greenheck Fan Corporation
14. TROX GmbH
15. Goodman Manufacturing Company LP
16. Bosch Thermotechnology Corp.
17. AAON Inc.
18. Fujitsu General America Inc.
19. Samsung Electronics America Inc.
20. Danfoss A/S

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support