PUBLISHER: Guidehouse Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1817388
PUBLISHER: Guidehouse Research | PRODUCT CODE: 1817388
Sustainable Fuels for Marine and Aviation Sectors - Demand and Supply Outlook
The sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and sustainable marine fuels (SMF) markets are defined by the convergence of advanced fuel technologies, evolving regulatory frameworks, and shifting demand dynamics across aviation and shipping sectors. Although SAF and SMF are in the early stages of commercial deployment, both are increasingly recognized as critical enablers of long-distance transport decarbonization. Supported by growing offtake commitments, infrastructure investments, and lifecycle emissions standards, these fuels are positioned to play a central role in the energy transition for hard-to-abate transport sectors.
This Guidehouse Research report provides an overview of the drivers and barriers for the SAF and SMF market, offers recommendations for stakeholders, and projects global supply and demand for the sustainable fuels market by region and pathways from 2025 through 2035. It analyzes key technology pathways driving the development of SAF and SMF. SAF focuses on four commercially and strategically relevant conversion technologies: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, alcohol-to-jet, power-to-liquid, and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene. The SMF analysis covers renewable methanol, renewable methane, green ammonia, and biofuels (including FAME and HVO).
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
- 1.1 Introduction
- 1.1.1 Scope
- 1.1.2 Market Drivers
- 1.1.3 Market Barriers
- 1.2 Global Market Outlook
2. Market Issues
- 2.1 Technology Overview
- 2.1.1 SAF Pathways
- 2.1.1.1 HEFA
- 2.1.1.2 AtJ
- 2.1.1.3 FT-SPK
- 2.1.1.4 PtL
- 2.1.1.5 Other Technologies
- 2.1.2 SAF Feedstock Assessment
- 2.1.3 SMF Pathways
- 2.1.3.1 Renewable Methanol
- 2.1.3.2 Renewable Methane
- 2.1.3.3 HVO
- 2.1.3.4 FAME
- 2.1.3.5 Green Ammonia
- 2.1.3.6 Other Technologies
- 2.1.1 SAF Pathways
- 2.2 Drivers
- 2.2.1 SAF Drivers
- 2.2.1.1 Airline and Corporate Demand for SAF as a Decarbonization Lever
- 2.2.1.2 Supply Chain Innovation and Feedstock Diversification
- 2.2.1.3 Policy Incentives and Global Initiatives
- 2.2.1.3.1 North America
- 2.2.1.3.2 Europe
- 2.2.1.3.3 Asia-Pacific
- 2.2.1.3.4 Latin America
- 2.2.1.3.5 Middle East & Africa
- 2.2.2 SMF Drivers
- 2.2.2.1 ESG Integration and Climate-Aligned Finance
- 2.2.2.2 Life Cycle Emissions Reduction and Infrastructure Compatibility
- 2.2.2.3 Supply Chain Decarbonization and Shipper Demand
- 2.2.2.4 Port-Led Ecosystem Development
- 2.2.2.5 Technology Maturity and Operational Flexibility
- 2.2.2.6 Policy Incentives and Global Initiatives
- 2.2.2.6.1 North America
- 2.2.2.6.2 Europe
- 2.2.2.6.3 Asia-Pacific
- 2.2.2.6.4 Latin America
- 2.2.2.6.5 Middle East & Africa
- 2.2.1 SAF Drivers
- 2.3 Barriers
- 2.3.1 SAF Barriers
- 2.3.1.1 Economic Viability and Feedstock Constraints
- 2.3.1.2 Demand Uncertainty and Financing Barriers
- 2.3.1.3 Infrastructure and Logistics Limitations
- 2.3.1.4 Technology Maturity and Scale-Up Risk
- 2.3.1.5 Market Fragmentation and Lack of Standards
- 2.3.2 SMF Barriers
- 2.3.2.1 Cost Premiums and Infrastructure Deficits
- 2.3.2.2 Regulatory Fragmentation and Uncertainty
- 2.3.2.3 Limited Fuel Supply and Cross-Sector Competition
- 2.3.2.4 Technology Maturity and Safety Risks
- 2.3.2.5 Investment Risk and Fleet Transition Hesitancy
- 2.3.2.6 Capacity and Equity Challenges in Developing Regions
- 2.3.1 SAF Barriers
3. Industry Value Chain
- 3.1 Competitive Landscape
- 3.1.1 SAF
- 3.1.1.1 Offtake Agreements for SAF
- 3.1.2 SMF
- 3.1.1 SAF
4. Market Forecasts
- 4.1 SAF
- 4.1.1 Scope
- 4.1.2 Methodology
- 4.1.3 Supply Capacity
- 4.1.3.1 Baseline Scenario
- 4.1.3.2 Conservative Scenario
- 4.1.3.3 Aggressive Scenario
- 4.1.4 Demand
- 4.2 SMF
- 4.2.1 Scope
- 4.2.2 Methodology
- 4.2.3 Supply Capacity
- 4.2.3.1 Baseline Scenario
- 4.2.3.2 Conservative Scenario
- 4.2.3.3 Aggressive Scenario
- 4.2.4 Demand
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
- 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
- 5.2 Recommendations
- 5.2.1 Policymakers and Regulators
- 5.2.2 Fuel Producers and Technology Developers
- 5.2.3 End Users
6. Acronym and Abbreviation List
7. Table of Contents
8. Table of Charts and Figures
9. Scope of Study, Sources, Methodology & Notes
List of Tables
- Table 2-1. Comparative Overview of SAF Production Pathways
- Table 2-2. Feedstock Risk Profiling and Regulatory Review for SAF Production
- Table 2-3. Comparative Overview of SMF Production Pathways
List of Figures
- Chart 1-1. SAF and SMF Supply Capacity and Demand by Category (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-1. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-2. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-3. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-4. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-5. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-6. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-7. SAF Demand by Scenario, World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-8. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-9. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-10. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-11. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-12. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-13. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
- Chart 4-14. SMF Demand by Scenario, World Markets: 2025-2035
- Figure 3-1. SAF and SMF Value Chain
