Market Research Report
Transformer Report- 2017 - Ed 5
|Published by||StatPlan Energy Limited||Product code||247102|
|Published||Content info||209 pages
Total demand for power and distribution transformers in 2016 is summarised with cagr in GVA and the value in $ in real and nominal terms.
Analysis of demand and transformer stock by category; GSU, power transformers and distribution transformers. Detailed shipment data for distribution transformers in the US is only available for the years 2009 by transformer type. Market drivers and utility investment are outlined. The manufacturing industry is analysed in detail by transformer category; LPT, power, medium power transformers, liquid and dry type MV transformers, LV dry type. Purchase influences and delivery channels are analysed. Efficiency are outlined.
The European market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex factory cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. Regional overview of the European utility system is provided, with details of utilizes and network structure, including voltage analysis. Efficiency measures are outlined. The changing network landscape of Distributed Power and Smart Transformers are outlined. Over the last five years, the EU power sector has been hit by a "perfect storm" of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors that have led to overcapacity and low prices. MPS and market drivers are analysed. As a result, the region's large publicly traded utilities have, on average, lost half of their market capitalisation since 2008, destroying around EUR 500 billion of shareholder value. Tis is outlined and analysed in detail focusing on the major utilizes affected. The chapter contains detailed marketing sections for the major countries in Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Turkey, analysis of manufacturing facilities, especially the global leaders; ABB, Siemens, Alstom, Schneider, Legrand.
The CIS market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The chapter contains a separate report on the major CIS country, Russia.
The Middle Eastern and African markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country.
The Asia Pacific markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. Separate detailed sections are included for China, India, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Japanese manufacturing with its high overseas component is analysed. An interesting analysis is provided of investment as a % of GDP, which shows clearly the dominance of the Asian countries and MENA with implications for markets.
The LAC markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The two largest market, Brazil and Mexico are analysed individually.
There are basically three levels at which the cost of equipment can be quoted; the ex-factory cost, the retail price, the installed cost, and a fourth, capital expenditure (capex). This is analysed and a table of mark-ups provided.
Demand in in MVA capacity for the base year 2016, forecast annually to 2021 by region and 153 countries, analysed within regions. by type - Generator Transformer, Power Transformer, Distribution Transformer.
A detail set of tables of Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA), numbers of units and kVA/unit for distribution transformers, by country and ownership, World, 2016.
In the T&D industry, power and distribution transformers are one of the major components of equipment, in addition to switchgear, cables and other items of equipment. Transformers are needed at all stages in an electrical supply system when the voltage level changes, either up or down and the transport of power goes through several stages between generation and final delivery to the consumer. These stages vary according to the design of the system. The chapter outlines the various stages of the power networks in detail and identifies where he different types of transformers are positioned, flagging regional differences in practice.
Global installed transformer capacity has risen every year throughout the last and current centuries, from 22 GVA in 1900 to 45,188 GVA in 2016. The growth has been linear and it will continue as such until 2050. At face value the steady rise in installed capacity suggests that annual demand for power and distribution transformers will rise steadily every year on a linear path, but this is not the case. It was such an assumption as this which led to unsustainable surpluses of production capacity in the electro-technical industry in the 1990s and the demise of many hitherto respected and successful companies. Over 200 transformer factories were closed between 1970 and 2000. Figures plot installed transformer capacity and annual demand based on replacement cycles of 40 years for power transformers and 30 years for distribution transformers. The long-term demand cycle of new and renewal does not equate to short term expenditure. At present, if replacement had been carried out as needed demand would be going down. However, replacement has been delayed for years, especially in the transmission sector and short term market is increasing. The long- term demand cycle is a tool for long-term planning, while the short-term expenditure projections are for immediate sales and marketing purposes.
The ratio of transformer capacity to generating capacity is a useful statistic because generating capacity is comprehensively recorded whereas transformer capacity is less well documented. This enables us not only to confirm snapshots of transformation capacity at any point in time but also to plot long term trends and demand cycles for transformers based on the historical data for generating capacity. Power transformers have along service lives, often 40 years or more, with some still in service aged 60-80 years and even a few 100 years old. It is therefore essential to plot long term installed capacity. There are variations between countries, which are the result of different network designs and voltage classes.
Challenges such as the aging power grid, increasing energy demands, spiraling cost of generating electricity and its cost on the environment all point toward the need for a grid that can produce and distribute energy more efficiently and reliably. The smart grid is being developed to deal with these problems. Transformers serve as a hub for collection and distribution of energy and are a key component of a successful transition to a smart grid. The smart grid concept ties together all aspects of the power system, from the plug in the wall at a house or office to a factory, to the distribution system, to power plants of all kinds. For the smart grid to work efficiently, there will be a need for smart transformers. As part of the distribution network, there are millions of transformers in the world; unfortunately, very few have any intelligence or communication capabilities that meet advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) standards or are parts of an advanced sensor infrastructure (ASI) network.
Redundancy is a crucial consideration in infrastructure design and has major implications for market size calculations. The following factors are reviewed; the impact of network failure, transformer failure, industrial reliability, network reliability, N-1 and the networks, contingency planning for network failure and electricity distribution.
In recent years, the prices of electrotechnical products have been volatile due to variations in many factors which affect them. Price trends are reviewed with commentary on PPI - Producer Price Index, industry trends, production capacity, and the manufacturing input cost composition.
The generating mixture is changing and two aspects will impact on the transformer stock; increases in distributed power and in renewables. The non-hydro renewable capacity consists mainly of wind power and solar PV, which have grown rapidly in the last two decades. They will affect transformers because the power generated enters the grid at different points and at different voltages.
Losses in transmission and distribution networks constitute the single biggest loss in any electricity system. Approximately 70% of the losses in electricity networks occur in the distribution network with conductor accounting for 42% of these losses and transformers about 30%. Transformers operate 24 hours/day, 365 days per year and have very long lifetimes, typically 40-50 years for power transformers and around 30 years for distribution transformers. Energy consumption during its service life is the dominant factor in their life-cycle assessment environmental impact. The increased use of electronic equipment can lead to increased harmonic currents and higher losses in transformers. Transformers are already efficient pieces of equipment, with efficiency in the range of 95 to 99 The issue is discussed and details of mandatory efficiency standards around the world supplied.
Manufacturers of larger power transformers are easier to identify and their production capacity is either published or can be estimated. Most countries have numbers of small local producers of distribution transformers which are sold to local distribution utilities and are poorly documented. Some large countries have a lot of these companies, notably China, India, Europe and the United States. China, Europe and the United States have large numbers of distribution utilities, India fewer. The chapter surveys the global situation with detailed reports for the major countries.
Power transformers, especially GSU and quad boosters, are among the largest and heaviest pieces of equipment that must be transported, sometimes over long distances. Because of their size and the small numbers in service there are only a few manufacturers of the largest units in the world, thereby necessitating long and complex logistics. This is increasingly mentioned by vendors as a major cost and a consideration in locating manufacturing sites. It is not our purpose to provide a detailed survey of logistics in this report but to give a flavour of what is an increasingly important issue of the complexities of delivery of large, heavy equipment.
The impact of increased electrification on future markets is described with its advantages in terms of electrical goods and aspirations, which vary according to the sophistication of the electrical market in a country. Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections are assessed with tables of electrification levels for every country, from 1950 to 2050.