Mature Memory Structural Shortage: Price Plateau Era Arrives - 2H26

Capital shifts to high-performance chips have squeezed mature processes, triggering structural shortages in high-reliability memory. As value revaluation outpaces volume growth, market revenue surges. The industry enters a price plateau, shifting competition to supply stability and long-term contract management.

Key Highlights

• Long-Term Capacity Squeeze: Global investments pivot to high-value chips, leaving mature manufacturing processes heavily constrained.
• Rigid Demand Barriers: Highly unsubstitutable sectors like automotive and edge AI demand extreme reliability, creating strong moats.
• Historic Value Revaluation: Driven by pricing rather than volume, the industry experiencing a massive revenue surge, hitting multi-decade highs.
• Structural Price Plateau: Without expansion plans, supply remains tight. Prices will hover around historic peaks and drift higher during peak seasons.
• Shift in Market Competition: Vendors lean on long-term supply agreements, shifting competitive focus from low pricing to supply stability.
• Extended Profitability Cycle: Leading suppliers with automotive certifications and high-density products will enjoy a prolonged profit era.