Next Generation Fuels

This report examines the transition from waste oils to next-generation fuels, assessing the scaling of renewable diesel, SAF, ethanol, and biodiesel alongside the emergence of synthetic fuels, ammonia, and methanol, and highlighting the feedstock shift toward residues and algae as the sector looks beyond 2030.

Global transport is under pressure to decarbonize, with heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, and shipping proving difficult to electrify. This report explores how alternative fuels are scaling, from today's reliance on renewable diesel, SAF, ethanol, and FAME biodiesel to tomorrow's frontier solutions, such as synthetic fuels, green and blue ammonia, and green and blue methanol.

Backed by mandates such as the EU ReFuelEU Aviation regulation and IMO's 2050 decarbonization targets, low-carbon fuels are attracting investment and corporate commitments from leaders like Maersk, Finnair, and United Airlines. Yet sustainability constraints on waste oils are driving a feedstock transition toward residues, MSW, and algae, with commercial availability still a decade away. This report offers critical insights into technology pathways, policy frameworks, and market opportunities shaping the future of low-carbon fuels.

Key Highlights

• Transport emissions are projected to reach 8,019 MtCO2 by 2030, with heavy truck emissions having risen at a 2.3% CAGR between 2000 and 2020, underscoring the urgency of diversifying decarbonization pathways.
• Renewable diesel (RD) capacity is forecast to grow at a 16% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, with North America leading the way, followed by Europe and Asia.
• Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is set to expand at a faster 36% CAGR over 2025-2030, supported by the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation mandating a 6% SAF blend by 2030 and voluntary airline commitments, such as United Airlines targeting 10% SAF by 2030.
• Innovation in synthetic fuels, ammonia, and methanol is advancing, with shipping already leading methanol adoption, for example Maersk has over 25 methanol-fueled vessels on order, backed by offtake agreements with producers such as Orsted and Methanex.
• The feedstock transition is underway: current reliance on waste lipids (animal fats, used cooking oil, vegetable oils) is constrained, driving investment in lignocellulosic residues, MSW-to-fuel, and algae, which offer scalability, circularity, and significant lifecycle emission reductions.

Scope

• Decarbonization of transport with a focus on hard-to-abate sectors; scaling of renewable diesel, SAF, ethanol, and FAME biodiesel; emerging roles for synthetic fuels, green and blue ammonia, and green and blue methanol; aviation mandates such as EU ReFuelEU and airline SAF targets; shipping decarbonization led by methanol-fueled vessels and ammonia partnerships; transition from waste oils and fats toward residues, MSW, and algae; RFNBO certification and compliance; regional capacity pipelines and commercialization timelines; investment trends, technology scalability, and long-term market opportunities.

Reasons to Buy

• Assess the current landscape of alternative fuels, covering both conventional options (renewable diesel, SAF, ethanol, FAME biodiesel) and emerging fuels (synthetic fuels, green/blue ammonia, green/blue methanol).
• Identify the market trends and capacity outlook for fuels and feedstocks through 2030, including key drivers such as EU ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, airline SAF commitments, and shipping decarbonization initiatives.
• Understand the feedstock transition from waste lipids to next-generation sources such as lignocellulosic residues, MSW, and algae, and evaluate their scalability, sustainability, and commercial timelines.
• Benchmark leading projects and offtake agreements across aviation and shipping sectors to understand how corporate demand is shaping adoption.
• Gain insight into the risks and opportunities in scaling advanced fuels, including policy frameworks, certification requirements (e.g., RFNBO), and investment trends across regions.