Critical Raw Materials Shaping the Energy Transition - 2026

Critical minerals continue to present a core strategic challenge for the global energy transition, with supply chain concentration, export restrictions, and rising geopolitical tensions increasingly shaping market dynamics.

This report assesses the outlook for lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements (REEs), alongside the renewable energy, energy storage, and electric vehicle (EV) sectors that are expected to drive future demand growth.

Despite increasing investment in alternative supply chains, China is expected to remain dominant across several critical mineral refining and processing markets.

The focus minerals analyzed in this report continue to carry medium- to high-risk profiles due to a combination of factors, including concentrated refining capacity, long mine development timelines, and increasing competition between clean-tech and traditional demand sectors. Although global mined production capacity across battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel has scaled rapidly in recent years, this has also created periods of oversupply and heightened price volatility. At the same time, governments are increasingly intervening through industrial policy, export controls, stockpiling strategies, and supply chain diversification initiatives in a bid to secure access to critical materials.

Lithium and nickel markets are currently characterized by oversupply conditions following rapid production growth, particularly across Indonesia for nickel and Australia and South America for lithium. However, despite weaker near-term pricing environments, both minerals remain central to long-term electrification trends due to continued growth in EVs, stationary energy storage, and grid infrastructure. In cobalt, the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) continued dominance of mined supply, alongside China's control over refining, continues to create significant supply chain risk despite efforts by countries such as Australia and Canada to develop alternative sources of ESG-compliant production.

Copper continues to emerge as one of the most strategically important minerals for electrification due to its role across renewable generation, transmission infrastructure, EVs, industrial electrification, and rapidly growing data center power demand. Although supply diversification and recycling capacity are increasing, declining ore grades, ageing mines, and lengthy project development timelines continue to create expectations of tightening market conditions towards the end of the decade.

Graphite and rare earth elements represent some of the highest-risk mineral supply chains analyzed in this report due to China's overwhelming dominance across refining, processing, and downstream manufacturing. Graphite demand growth is accelerating rapidly due to its role within lithium-ion battery anodes, while rare earth demand is being driven by permanent magnets used in EV motors, wind turbines, industrial equipment, and defense technologies. Increasing trade restrictions, licensing requirements, and geopolitical tensions are accelerating diversification efforts across the US, EU, Australia, Japan, and India, although replicating China's vertically integrated processing ecosystem remains a significant long-term challenge.

Key Highlights

• Critical mineral markets are becoming increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and supply chain concentration, reinforcing energy security and resource diversification as strategic priorities.
• Rapid growth in EVs, battery energy storage systems (BESS), renewable power, AI infrastructure, and industrial electrification is accelerating long-term demand for lithium, copper, graphite, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements (REEs).
• Governments and industry players are expanding investment in new mining, refining, recycling, and emerging technologies such as direct lithium extraction (DLE), although project economics, permitting challenges, and geopolitical risks continue to create uncertainty across supply chains.

Scope

• This report examines the evolving global critical minerals landscape and its role in supporting the energy transition, with a focus on lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, and rare earth elements (REEs).
• It analyzes supply-demand trends, pricing dynamics, project development activity, and geopolitical risks shaping the sector through 2030.
• The report also assesses how accelerating deployment of EVs, energy storage, renewable power, AI infrastructure, and industrial electrification is driving mineral demand, while evaluating policy developments, export restrictions, diversification strategies, and emerging technologies such as direct lithium extraction (DLE) and battery recycling.

Reasons to Buy

• Assess how geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and supply chain concentration are reshaping global critical mineral markets and clean energy supply chains.
• Evaluate the outlook for lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, and rare earth elements (REEs), including supply-demand balances, pricing trends, and project development activity through 2030.
• Identify how growth in EVs, energy storage, AI infrastructure, renewable power, and industrial electrification is accelerating demand for critical minerals across global markets.
• Analyze regional policy developments and diversification strategies as governments seek to reduce dependence on concentrated mineral supply chains.
• Understand the emerging technologies and strategic developments shaping the sector, including direct lithium extraction (DLE), battery recycling, synthetic graphite, and rare earth processing capacity expansion.