D2D via Satellite in the U.S.: Progress, Policy, and Commercial Viability

This IDC Market Perspective discusses the emergence of direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity in the U.S. as a natural extension of the mobile network, enabled by advances in LEO constellations, 3GPP NTN standardization, and growing integration into consumer devices. Rather than acting as a standalone satellite service, D2D is being positioned as a complementary RAN layer focused on coverage and resilience, with early deployments centered on emergency communications, rural coverage extension, and low-bandwidth IoT use cases. While strong momentum is driven by partnerships between MNOs and satellite operators under frameworks such as the FCC's Supplemental Coverage from Space (SCS), the pace of adoption will depend on overcoming key constraints around device readiness, certification complexity, and limited satellite capacity. Over the next three to five years, D2D is expected to evolve from feature-based implementations to a network-native capability embedded within the broader 5G ecosystem."D2D in the U.S. should not be viewed as a new connectivity paradigm, but as the natural extension of the mobile network into areas where terrestrial economics break down," said Alejandro Cadenas, associate vice president of Telco Research, IDC. "Its success will depend less on satellite capacity and more on how effectively operators integrate spectrum, devices, and certification into a seamless hybrid experience."