Global Oil Refining Market 2026-2030

Description

The global oil refining market is forecasted to grow by USD 112.5 bn during 2025-2030, accelerating at a CAGR of 1.3% during the forecast period. The report on the global oil refining market provides a holistic analysis, market size and forecast, trends, growth drivers, and challenges, as well as vendor analysis covering around 25 vendors.

The report offers an up-to-date analysis regarding the current market scenario, the latest trends and drivers, and the overall market environment. The market is driven by industrialization of modern mega-refineries and capacity geography shifting, strategic mainstreaming of chemical integration and product diversification, structural expansion of environmental compliance and low-emission fuel.

The study was conducted using an objective combination of primary and secondary information including inputs from key participants in the industry. The report contains a comprehensive market size data, segment with regional analysis and vendor landscape in addition to an analysis of the key companies. Reports have historic and forecast data.

Market Scope
Base Year	2025
End Year	2030
Series Year	2026-2030
Growth Momentum	Accelerate
YOY 2026	1.2%
CAGR	1.3%
Incremental Value	$112.5 bn

Technavio's global oil refining market is segmented as below:

By Product

Light distillates
Middle distillates
Fuel oil
Others

By Fuel Type

Gasoline
Kerosene
LPG
Others

By End-User

Transportation
Petrochemicals
Residential and commercial heating
Power generation
Others

By Capacity

Large-scale refineries
Medium-scale refineries
Small-scale refineries

Geography

North America
- US
- Canada
- Mexico
Europe
- Russia
- Germany
- Italy
- Spain
- France
- UK
APAC
- China
- India
- South Korea
- Japan
- Indonesia
- Australia
Middle East and Africa
- UAE
- South Africa
- Turkey
South America
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Chile
Rest of World (ROW)

This study identifies the integration of biorefining and sustainable aviation fuel conversions as one of the prime reasons driving the global oil refining market growth during the next few years. Also, growth of petrochemical integration and crude-to-chemicals diversification and strategic expansion of digital twins and ai-operated process optimization will lead to sizable demand in the market.

The report on the global oil refining market covers the following areas:

Global oil refining market sizing
Global oil refining market forecast
Global oil refining market industry analysis

The robust vendor analysis is designed to help clients improve their market position, and in line with this, this report provides a detailed analysis of several leading global oil refining market vendors that include Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., BP Plc, Chevron Corp., China National Petroleum Corp., Eni SpA, Exxon Mobil Corp., HollyFrontier Corp., Indian Oil Corp. Ltd., Marathon Petroleum Corp., Neste Corp., PBF Energy Inc., Phillips 66 Co., Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA, Reliance Industries Ltd., Repsol SA, Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Shell plc, Sinopec Shanghai Co. Ltd., TotalEnergies SE, Valero Energy Corp.. Also, the global oil refining market analysis report includes information on upcoming trends and challenges that will influence market growth. This is to help companies strategize and leverage all forthcoming growth opportunities.

The publisher presents a detailed picture of the market by the way of study, synthesis, and summation of data from multiple sources by an analysis of key parameters such as profit, pricing, competition, and promotions. It presents various market facets by identifying the key industry influencers. The data presented is comprehensive, reliable, and a result of extensive primary and secondary research. The market research reports provide a complete competitive landscape and an in-depth vendor selection methodology and analysis using qualitative and quantitative research to forecast accurate market growth.

Product Code: IRTNTR75610

1 Executive Summary

1.1 Market overview
- Executive Summary - Chart on Market Overview
- Executive Summary - Data Table on Market Overview
- Executive Summary - Chart on Global Market Characteristics
- Executive Summary - Chart on Market by Geography
- Executive Summary - Chart on Market Segmentation by Product
- Executive Summary - Chart on Market Segmentation by Fuel Type
- Executive Summary - Chart on Market Segmentation by End-user
- Executive Summary - Chart on Market Segmentation by Capacity
- Executive Summary - Chart on Incremental Growth
- Executive Summary - Data Table on Incremental Growth
- Executive Summary - Chart on Company Market Positioning

2 Technavio Analysis

2.1 Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria
- Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria
2.2 Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
2.3 Factors of disruption
2.4 Impact of drivers and challenges

3 Market Landscape

3.1 Market ecosystem
3.2 Market characteristics
3.3 Value chain analysis

4 Market Sizing

4.1 Market definition
4.2 Market segment analysis
- Market segments
4.3 Market size 2025
4.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2025-2030

5 Historic Market Size

5.1 Global Oil Refining Market 2020 - 2024
- Historic Market Size - Data Table on Global Oil Refining Market 2020 - 2024 ($ billion)
5.2 Product segment analysis 2020 - 2024
- Historic Market Size - Product Segment 2020 - 2024 ($ billion)
5.3 Fuel Type segment analysis 2020 - 2024
- Historic Market Size - Fuel Type Segment 2020 - 2024 ($ billion)
5.4 End-user segment analysis 2020 - 2024
- Historic Market Size - End-user Segment 2020 - 2024 ($ billion)
5.5 Capacity segment analysis 2020 - 2024
- Historic Market Size - Capacity Segment 2020 - 2024 ($ billion)
5.6 Geography segment analysis 2020 - 2024
- Historic Market Size - Geography Segment 2020 - 2024 ($ billion)
5.7 Country segment analysis 2020 - 2024
- Historic Market Size - Country Segment 2020 - 2024 ($ billion)

6 Qualitative Analysis

6.1 Impact of AI in global oil refining market
6.2 Impact of geopolitical conflict for global oil refining market

7 Five Forces Analysis

7.1 Five forces summary
- Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2025 and 2030
7.2 Bargaining power of buyers
- Bargaining power of buyers - Impact of key factors 2025 and 2030
7.3 Bargaining power of suppliers
- Bargaining power of suppliers - Impact of key factors in 2025 and 2030
7.4 Threat of new entrants
- Threat of new entrants - Impact of key factors in 2025 and 2030
7.5 Threat of substitutes
- Threat of substitutes - Impact of key factors in 2025 and 2030
7.6 Threat of rivalry
- Threat of rivalry - Impact of key factors in 2025 and 2030
7.7 Market condition

8 Market Segmentation by Product

8.1 Market segments
8.2 Comparison by Product
8.3 Light distillates - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
8.4 Middle distillates - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
8.5 Fuel oil - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
8.6 Others - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
8.7 Market opportunity by Product
- Market opportunity by Product ($ billion)

9 Market Segmentation by Fuel Type

9.1 Market segments
9.2 Comparison by Fuel Type
9.3 Gasoline - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
9.4 Kerosene - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
9.5 LPG - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
9.6 Others - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
9.7 Market opportunity by Fuel Type
- Market opportunity by Fuel Type ($ billion)

10 Market Segmentation by End-user

10.1 Market segments
10.2 Comparison by End-user
10.3 Transportation - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
10.4 Petrochemicals - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
10.5 Residential and commercial heating - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
10.6 Power generation - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
10.7 Others - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
10.8 Market opportunity by End-user
- Market opportunity by End-user ($ billion)

11 Market Segmentation by Capacity

11.1 Market segments
11.2 Comparison by Capacity
11.3 Large-scale refineries - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
11.4 Medium-scale refineries - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
11.5 Small-scale refineries - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
11.6 Market opportunity by Capacity
- Market opportunity by Capacity ($ billion)

12 Customer Landscape

12.1 Customer landscape overview
- Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

13 Geographic Landscape

13.1 Geographic segmentation
13.2 Geographic comparison
13.3 North America - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.3.1 US - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.3.2 Canada - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.3.3 Mexico - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
13.4 Europe - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.4.1 Russia - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.4.2 Germany - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.4.3 Italy - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.4.4 Spain - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.4.5 France - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.4.6 UK - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
13.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.5.1 China - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.5.2 India - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.5.3 South Korea - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.5.4 Japan - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.5.5 Indonesia - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.5.6 Australia - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
13.6 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.6.1 Saudi Arabia - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.6.2 UAE - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.6.3 South Africa - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.6.4 Turkey - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.6.5 Israel - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
13.7 South America - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.7.1 Brazil - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.7.2 Argentina - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
- 13.7.3 Chile - Market size and forecast 2025-2030
13.8 Market opportunity by geography
- Market opportunity by geography ($ billion)
- Data Tables on Market opportunity by geography ($ billion)

14 Drivers, Challenges, and Opportunity

14.1 Market drivers
- Industrialization of modern mega-refineries and capacity geography shifting
- Strategic mainstreaming of chemical integration and product diversification
- Structural expansion of environmental compliance and low-emission fuel
14.2 Market challenges
- Intensification of geopolitical infrastructure disruptions and export channel
- Persistence of stringent environmental mandates and mandatory emissions
- Technical friction of workforce scarcity and maintenance skill gaps
14.3 Impact of drivers and challenges
- Impact of drivers and challenges in 2025 and 2030
14.4 Market opportunities
- Integration of biorefining and sustainable aviation fuel conversions
- Growth of petrochemical integration and crude-to-chemicals diversification
- Strategic expansion of digital twins and AI-operated process optimization

15 Competitive Landscape

15.1 Overview
15.2 Competitive Landscape
- Overview on criticality of inputs and factors of differentiation
15.3 Landscape disruption
- Overview on factors of disruption
15.4 Industry risks
- Impact of key risks on business

16 Competitive Analysis

16.1 Companies profiled
- Companies covered
16.2 Company ranking index
- Company ranking index
16.3 Market positioning of companies
- Matrix on companies position and classification
16.4 Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd.
- Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. - Overview
- Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. - Product / Service
- Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. - Key offerings
- SWOT
16.5 BP Plc
- BP Plc - Overview
- BP Plc - Business segments
- BP Plc - Key offerings
- BP Plc - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.6 Chevron Corp.
- Chevron Corp. - Overview
- Chevron Corp. - Business segments
- Chevron Corp. - Key news
- Chevron Corp. - Key offerings
- Chevron Corp. - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.7 China National Petroleum Corp.
- China National Petroleum Corp. - Overview
- China National Petroleum Corp. - Product / Service
- China National Petroleum Corp. - Key offerings
- SWOT
16.8 Eni SpA
- Eni SpA - Overview
- Eni SpA - Business segments
- Eni SpA - Key offerings
- Eni SpA - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.9 Exxon Mobil Corp.
- Exxon Mobil Corp. - Overview
- Exxon Mobil Corp. - Business segments
- Exxon Mobil Corp. - Key news
- Exxon Mobil Corp. - Key offerings
- Exxon Mobil Corp. - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.10 Indian Oil Corp. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. - Overview
- Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. - Business segments
- Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. - Key offerings
- Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.11 Phillips 66 Co.
- Phillips 66 Co. - Overview
- Phillips 66 Co. - Business segments
- Phillips 66 Co. - Key offerings
- Phillips 66 Co. - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.12 Reliance Industries Ltd.
- Reliance Industries Ltd. - Overview
- Reliance Industries Ltd. - Business segments
- Reliance Industries Ltd. - Key offerings
- Reliance Industries Ltd. - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.13 Repsol SA
- Repsol SA - Overview
- Repsol SA - Business segments
- Repsol SA - Key offerings
- Repsol SA - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.14 Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
- Saudi Arabian Oil Co. - Overview
- Saudi Arabian Oil Co. - Business segments
- Saudi Arabian Oil Co. - Key offerings
- Saudi Arabian Oil Co. - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.15 Shell plc
- Shell plc - Overview
- Shell plc - Business segments
- Shell plc - Key news
- Shell plc - Key offerings
- Shell plc - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.16 Sinopec Shanghai Co. Ltd.
- Sinopec Shanghai Co. Ltd. - Overview
- Sinopec Shanghai Co. Ltd. - Business segments
- Sinopec Shanghai Co. Ltd. - Key offerings
- Sinopec Shanghai Co. Ltd. - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.17 TotalEnergies SE
- TotalEnergies SE - Overview
- TotalEnergies SE - Business segments
- TotalEnergies SE - Key news
- TotalEnergies SE - Key offerings
- TotalEnergies SE - Segment focus
- SWOT
16.18 Valero Energy Corp.
- Valero Energy Corp. - Overview
- Valero Energy Corp. - Business segments
- Valero Energy Corp. - Key offerings
- Valero Energy Corp. - Segment focus
- SWOT

17 Appendix

17.1 Scope of the report
- Market definition
- Objectives
- Notes and caveats
17.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist
- Inclusions checklist
- Exclusions checklist
17.3 Currency conversion rates for US$
- Currency conversion rates for US$
17.4 Research methodology
- Research methodology
17.5 Data procurement
- Information sources
17.6 Data validation
- Data validation
17.7 Validation techniques employed for market sizing
- Validation techniques employed for market sizing
17.8 Data synthesis
- Data synthesis
17.9 360 degree market analysis
- 360 degree market analysis
17.10 List of abbreviations
- List of abbreviations