PUBLISHER: Mordor Intelligence | PRODUCT CODE: 2073251
PUBLISHER: Mordor Intelligence | PRODUCT CODE: 2073251
According to Mordor Intelligence, the china renewable gas from waste market size is projected to expand from USD 2.12 billion in 2025 and USD 2.36 billion in 2026 to USD 4.63 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 14.43% between 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by Feedstock (Municipal Solid Waste, Agricultural Residues, Food Waste, and More), by Technology (Gasification, Pyrolysis, and More), by Gas Type (Biogas, Syngas, and More), by Application (Electricity Generation, Grid Injection, and More), and by Component (Gas Collection, Digesters & Fermentation, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).
China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality agenda is now shaping the China renewable gas from waste market through rules, measurement systems, and project-level compliance expectations rather than broad policy signaling alone. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) 2024 action plan on carbon peak and carbon neutrality standards strengthened the measurement and verification base that renewable gas projects need to document emissions outcomes at the enterprise level. That shift matters because developers now need stronger data quality and more bankable reporting before projects can secure offtake confidence from utilities and industries. It also raises entry barriers for smaller firms that lack verified monitoring systems and formal reporting capabilities. In practice, the China renewable gas from waste market is moving closer to sectors where legal recognition, carbon accounting, and access to infrastructure must work together before scale can follow.
The Energy Law of the People's Republic of China took effect on January 1, 2025, and gave bio-natural gas a clearer statutory position within the national energy system. The law encourages the use of biomass energy according to local conditions and also requires the energy system to improve its ability to accept and allocate renewable energy. That legal change reduces the ambiguity that city gas distributors previously used to resist access to the biomethane grid. Project developers can now negotiate long-term supply arrangements with better institutional backing than the China renewable gas from waste market had before 2025. The result is a more predictable commercial path for grid injection projects in provinces with dense municipal gas networks.
The China renewable gas from waste market still lacks a national per-unit production subsidy, leaving many projects dependent on local gas prices, by-product sales, and carbon revenues. This matters most in regions where distribution networks are weaker, and developers cannot rely on premium urban offtake channels. The MEE's December 2025 release of new CCER methodologies for pig farm manure biogas recovery and agricultural waste centralized processing helps part of the revenue stack. Still, it does not replace a direct production support mechanism. Without a national subsidy, stronger balance sheets remain a major competitive advantage, favoring SOEs and large environmental firms over smaller developers. As a result, project deployment remains selective even when the resource base is large.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Agricultural residues accounted for 31.50% of the China renewable gas from waste market share in 2025, making them the largest feedstock base in the sector. Their lead reflects the scale of crop output and the wide availability of straw and related residues across major farming provinces. In practical terms, these streams provide the volume needed for county-level plants where collection systems are already in place. The China renewable gas from waste market also benefits from the fact that agricultural residues align with broader rural waste treatment and resource-use goals.
Food waste is forecast to expand at 14.32% through 2031, making it the fastest-growing feedstock category in the market. Animal manure, industrial organic waste, sewage sludge, and landfill waste serve different compliance and disposal needs within the China renewable gas from waste market. Manure is especially important because livestock waste treatment is no longer optional in many areas, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has pushed for nationwide comprehensive utilization rates of 80% or more. This growth reflects mandatory urban sorting, cleaner incoming feedstock, and new CCER methodologies that improve the revenue potential of centralized biogas processing from organic waste streams.
Anaerobic digestion accounted for 43.60% of the China renewable gas from waste market size in 2025, making it the leading technology platform across agricultural and urban waste projects. Its dominance stemmed from a long operating history, familiarity with existing plants, and a broad installed base built around manure and mixed organic feedstocks. The technology also remains central because most current projects still begin with raw biogas production before any upgrading step. This gives anaerobic digestion a foundational role in the China renewable gas from waste market, even as newer pathways gain ground.
Gasification is projected to grow at 15.10% through 2031, which makes it the fastest-growing technology category in the forecast period. Biogas upgrading systems, landfill gas recovery, pyrolysis, and monitoring systems all support a broader, increasingly sophisticated technology stack. China Everbright Environment's first biomass gasification project in Xiao County, Anhui, showed that thermochemical conversion can move beyond pilot status and widen the usable feedstock base to drier materials that are less suitable for digestion. That matters because renewable gas from the waste industry in China requires multiple conversion routes to process the full range of municipal, agricultural, and industrial organic waste.