United States Heat Pump - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the United States heat pump market size stood at USD 14.81 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 22.68 billion by 2031, translating into an 8.89% CAGR across the forecast period.

This report is Segmented by Type (Air-Source, Water-Source, and More), Rated Capacity (Up To 10 Kilowatts, 10 To 20 Kilowatts, and More), System Design (Split System, Monobloc, and Hybrid Heat Pump), End-User (Residential, Commercial, Industrial and Institutional), and Application (Space Heating and Cooling, Water Heating and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

United States Heat Pump Market Trends and Insights

Federal Tax Incentives Under Inflation Reduction Act Boost Adoption

Section 25C and 25D credits covering up to USD 2,000 for air-source units and 30% of ground-source installed cost are eliminating the historical first-cost penalty that limited mainstream adoption. OEM earnings calls consistently attribute double-digit shipment growth in 2025 to point-of-sale credits that remove cash-flow friction for middle-income households. In cold-weather states where heat loads dominate utility bills, the incentive shortens payback to under seven years, stimulating retrofits even when legacy furnaces remain operational. Contractors report higher close rates because rebates are visible on proposals rather than deferred to tax season. Utilities further amplify demand by layering performance-based rebates, creating stacked incentives that reach 40% to 50% of installed cost in Massachusetts and Oregon.

Rapid Phasedown of High-GWP Refrigerants Accelerates Equipment Refresh Cycles

EPA's AIM Act caps are cutting R-410A production, raising spot prices and driving distributors to encourage accelerated replacement before service refrigerant scarcity becomes acute. Manufacturers with certified R-32 or R-454B product lines advertise future-proof compliance, giving them a resale premium in contractor channels. Early adopters benefit from improved seasonal efficiency because lower-density refrigerants pair with variable-speed compressors that reduce part-load losses. The phasedown timeline has also catalyzed ASHRAE to fast-track safety classifications, removing a regulatory bottleneck for mildly flammable refrigerants. While near-term supply tightness curbs margins for service contractors reliant on reclaimed R-410A, OEMs positioned with multi-refrigerant portfolios capture share and command higher ASPs.

Skilled-Installer Labor Shortage Inflates Installation Costs

HVAC employment is projected to grow 8% this decade but still lags accelerated demand for heat-pump-specific competencies. Median installer wages touched USD 59,810 in 2024, causing labor to exceed 45% of residential installed cost. Rural territories face extended lead times as contractors travel long distances, inflating soft costs. OEMs have pivoted into workforce development, Carrier's TechVantage aims to train 100,000 installers by 2028 while distributors experiment with prefabricated line-set kits that cut job-site hours. Despite these moves, wage inflation remains embedded, constraining near-term volume growth.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. State-Level Electrification Mandates Expand Beyond Coastal States
2. Cold-Climate Heat Pump Performance Breakthroughs Unlock Northern Demand
3. Legacy-Home Electrical-Panel Limits Curb Addressable Market

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Air-source units accounted for 74.83% of 2025 revenue as the lowest-cost entry point into the United States heat pump market. Most homeowners retrofit existing ducts with variable-speed split systems that ship in under two weeks, while ductless mini-splits give multifamily owners zone control without structural work. Operating efficiency dips in sub-freezing conditions, yet inverter-driven compressors and advanced defrost cycles now keep COP above 1.8 at 0 °F. On the other hand, ground-source solutions, supported by 30% federal credits, achieved a 9.31% CAGR outlook, eroding the lifecycle cost gap despite higher drilling expense. WaterFurnace's closed-loop vertical systems post COP 5.2, yielding sub-seven-year paybacks in high-load zones. School districts and corporate campuses embrace the technology for LEED certification and long service life, signaling further share migration toward geothermal in the United States heat pump market.

Beyond lifecycle economics, geothermal performance stability shields users from grid-peak price volatility, an attractive hedge as renewables drive intraday rate swings. Equipment suppliers are bundling loop-field design, drilling, and commissioning under single contracts to offset contractor learning curves. This turnkey model accelerates timelines and addresses installer scarcity, positioning geothermal as the premium efficiency choice within the United States heat pump industry.

Sub-10 kW systems furnished 45.26% of the United States heat pump market size in 2025, reflecting 2- to 5-ton demand in detached housing. Dealers favor these SKUs for inventory turns and standardized installation. Capacity bands above 30 kW, though smaller today, are scaling at 9.78% CAGR as supermarkets, light-manufacturing plants, and distribution centers electrify HVAC loads for Scope 1 reductions. Modular rooftop platforms integrate multiple inverter compressors to track variable internal gains in warehouses, slashing part-load inefficiency. Utilities reward these sites with demand-response incentives, improving net economics relative to gas boiler retrofits.

Industrial adopters pursuing process heat above 160 °F are piloting two-stage compression systems with economized vapor injection. Early projects in dairy pasteurization and textile drying demonstrate 60% fuel-cost cuts versus natural-gas boilers, hinting that high-capacity segments could command a larger slice of the United States heat pump market share by decade-end.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Source Type
  • Air-Source
    • Air-to-Air
    • Air-to-Water
  • Water-Source
    • Surface Water
    • Open Loop
  • Ground / Geothermal Source
    • Closed Loop Vertical
    • Closed Loop Horizontal
    • Direct Expansion
• By Rated Capacity
  • Up to 10 kW
  • 10-20 kW
  • 20-30 kW
  • Above 30 kW
• By System Design
  • Split System
  • Monobloc
  • Hybrid Heat Pump
• By End-User
  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial
  • Institutional
• By Application
  • Space Heating and Cooling
  • Water Heating
  • District Heating
  • Process and Industrial Heating

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Carrier Global Corporation
2. DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, Ltd.,
3. Trane Technologies plc
4. Johnson Controls International plc
5. Rheem Manufacturing Company
6. Lennox International Inc.
7. Mitsubishi Electric US, Inc.
8. Bosch Thermotechnology Corp.
9. Emerson Electric Co.
10. GE Appliances, Inc. (a Haier company)
11. Nortek Air Management
12. Fujitsu General America, Inc.
13. LG Electronics USA, Inc.
14. WaterFurnace International, Inc.
15. ClimateMaster, Inc.
16. Goodman Manufacturing Co., L.P.
17. Stiebel Eltron GmbH and Co. KG
18. Samsung HVAC America, LLC

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support