Renewable Energy Certificate Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Type, Energy Source, Capacity of Generation Project, End User, and By Geography

According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Renewable Energy Certificate Market is accounted for $23.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $49.5 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 11.4% during the forecast period. The renewable energy certificate tracks and trades certificates that represent the environmental attributes of electricity generated from renewable sources. It connects generators, utilities, corporations, and traders through compliance and voluntary schemes. Benefits include a flexible, market-based mechanism to support renewable deployment, transparency in tracking green power, an instrument for meeting sustainability and regulatory targets, and additional revenue streams for renewable project owners without altering physical power flows.

Market Dynamics:

Driver:

Corporate Sustainability Commitments

As companies worldwide publicly commit to carbon neutrality and 100% renewable energy usage, RECs offer a flexible and immediate mechanism to substantiate these claims. They allow corporations to offset their carbon footprint and verify green energy consumption without altering their physical power supply arrangements. This surging demand from the commercial and industrial sector is creating a robust, voluntary market that complements compliance-driven demand, fundamentally expanding the market's scope and liquidity.

Restraint:

Verification and Transparency Issues

Inconsistent tracking systems and the potential for double-counting or fraud can undermine the integrity of certificates, casting doubt on their environmental claims. This lack of universal standardization erodes buyer confidence and can deter investment, particularly from entities seeking irrefutable proof of their green contributions. Consequently, these issues can suppress market growth and limit the premium value that fully transparent RECs can command.

Opportunity:

Green Hydrogen Certification

Certifying hydrogen as "green" necessitates verifying that the electricity used in its production is from renewable sources. RECs are the ideal instrument to provide this guarantee, creating a new and high-value certification stream. This application not only broadens the market's reach into a promising new energy vector but also enhances the value proposition of renewable energy projects dedicated to hydrogen production, thereby unlocking a significant and synergistic future market.

Threat:

Competition from PPAs

Corporations seeking more impactful and long-term price stability are increasingly bypassing RECs to sign physical or virtual PPAs directly with generators. While RECs offer flexibility, PPAs provide a more direct claim to additionality funding new renewable projects. This shift in corporate procurement strategy could potentially cap the growth of the voluntary REC market, especially among larger, sophisticated energy buyers.

Covid-19 Impact:

The pandemic initially disrupted the REC market through project construction delays and supply chain bottlenecks, which temporarily constrained certificate supply. Furthermore, economic uncertainty led some corporations to defer sustainability spending, softening voluntary demand in the short term. But the market showed tenacity, rebounding quickly as business activity picked back up. Moreover, the crisis amplified the global focus on ESG principles, ultimately reinforcing long-term corporate clean energy commitments and setting the stage for a strong post-pandemic market recovery and expansion.

The compliance segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period

The compliance segment is projected to hold the largest market share, primarily driven by binding government mandates and regulatory policies. Legislation such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) in the U.S. and similar mechanisms globally legally obligate utilities and large energy suppliers to source a specific portion of their electricity from renewable sources. RECs are the way for these groups to show that they are following the rules. This creates a steady, non-negotiable demand base that makes up the bulk of the current market volume.

The small-scale segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period

The small-scale segment is anticipated to achieve the highest growth rate, fueled by the global trend towards distributed energy generation. This includes rapid adoption of residential and commercial-scale solar PV and wind systems. Furthermore, supportive net metering policies and falling technology costs are empowering more consumers to become prosumers. Each unit of electricity produced by these small installations can be linked to a Renewable Energy Certificate (REC), leading to a large and quickly growing supply that is increasing faster than bigger utility projects.

Region with largest share:

During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, attributed to its well-established regulatory framework, particularly the mature U.S. market governed by state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). This creates a consistent, high-volume demand for compliance RECs. Additionally, the region boasts a highly active voluntary market, with corporate sustainability leaders aggressively purchasing RECs to meet ambitious environmental goals. The presence of sophisticated tracking systems and high liquidity further cements North America's position as the current market leader in terms of overall value and volume.

Region with highest CAGR:

Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to exhibit the highest CAGR, driven by the massive renewable energy capacity additions in countries like China, India, and Japan. Governments are implementing aggressive national renewable energy targets and developing their own compliance markets, which directly spur REC demand. Moreover, the region's burgeoning industrial sector is increasingly adopting voluntary sustainability targets, creating a parallel growth stream. This combination of top-down policy support and bottom-up corporate demand creates a potent environment for exponential market expansion.

Key players in the market

Some of the key players in Renewable Energy Certificate Market include AFS Energy B.V., Climate Impact Partners Limited, 3Degrees, Inc., Ecohz AS, REDEX Pte. Ltd., Shell Energy North America (US), L.P., ENGIE S.A., Evolugen by Brookfield Renewable, EDF Trading Limited, Grid Controller of India Limited (GRID-INDIA), Enel S.p.A., Statkraft AS, Sterling Planet, Inc., South Pole Holding AG, and STX Commodities B.V.

Key Developments:

In July 2025, Ecohz strengthened its biomethane offering by acquiring the ISCC EU certification, which certifies the sustainability of renewable gas solutions and enables issuing biomethane certificates for voluntary and compliance markets including the EU Emissions Trading System.

In February 2024 Statkraft signed a Virtual Power Purchase Agreement with Air Liquide for the purchase of RECs from new wind farms in Poland, expected to reduce 38,000 tonnes of CO2 annually.

Types Covered:

• Compliance
• Voluntary

Energy Sources Covered:

• Solar Power
• Wind Power
• Hydroelectric Power
• Biomass/Bioenergy
• Geothermal
• Other Energy Sources

Capacity of Generation Projects Covered:

• Small-Scale
• Mid-Scale
• Large-Scale

End Users Covered:

• Utilities and Energy Suppliers
• Corporate and Industrial (C&I) Consumers
• Residential Consumers
• Government Entities

Regions Covered:

• North America
  • US
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• Europe
  • Germany
  • UK
  • Italy
  • France
  • Spain
  • Rest of Europe
• Asia Pacific
  • Japan
  • China
  • India
  • Australia
  • New Zealand
  • South Korea
  • Rest of Asia Pacific
• South America
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Rest of South America
• Middle East & Africa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE
  • Qatar
  • South Africa
  • Rest of Middle East & Africa

What our report offers:

• Market share assessments for the regional and country-level segments
• Strategic recommendations for the new entrants
• Covers Market data for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, 2028, and 2032
• Market Trends (Drivers, Constraints, Opportunities, Threats, Challenges, Investment Opportunities, and recommendations)
• Strategic recommendations in key business segments based on the market estimations
• Competitive landscaping mapping the key common trends
• Company profiling with detailed strategies, financials, and recent developments
• Supply chain trends mapping the latest technological advancements

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