PUBLISHER: Fortune Business Insights Pvt. Ltd. | PRODUCT CODE: 1933245
PUBLISHER: Fortune Business Insights Pvt. Ltd. | PRODUCT CODE: 1933245
The global biofuels market is witnessing substantial growth as the world increasingly transitions toward clean energy solutions. The market was valued at USD 1,392.16 billion in 2025, is projected to reach USD 1,463.34 billion in 2026, and is expected to grow to USD 2,371.53 billion by 2034, reflecting a CAGR of 6.22% during the forecast period. In 2025, North America dominated the market with a share of 38.23%, driven by supportive policies, energy security concerns, and robust adoption of ethanol, biodiesel, and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).
The biofuels sector is expanding primarily due to the increasing need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation and energy industries. Governments worldwide are introducing favorable policies, including blending mandates, subsidies, and carbon pricing mechanisms, to encourage biofuel adoption. Aviation and maritime industries, with limited electrification options, are turning to advanced biofuels and SAF to meet decarbonization targets. Additionally, technological innovations, such as second-generation biofuels derived from waste and non-food feedstocks, are resolving the food-versus-fuel dilemma while enhancing production efficiency. For example, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' pilot plant in Nagasaki achieved over 99.5% ethanol purity using molecular sieve separation technology, reducing energy usage by over 30% and operational costs, paving the way for large-scale adoption.
Market Dynamics
Drivers: The transportation sector is a key growth driver. Between 2023 and 2028, global biofuel demand is expected to rise by 38 billion liters, representing a 30% increase from the previous five years. By 2028, total demand may reach 200 billion liters, primarily comprising ethanol and renewable diesel. Biofuels already accounted for over 3.5% of global transport energy demand in 2022, which could more than double to 9% by 2030 under net-zero scenarios.
Restraints: High production costs and limited infrastructure remain major barriers. In Europe, biodiesel and ethanol are 70-130% costlier than fossil fuels, while SAF in the U.S. may cost up to five times more than conventional jet fuel. Infrastructure limitations, such as fuel stations unable to handle high-blend fuels, exacerbate these challenges.
Opportunities: The expansion of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) offers growth potential. Global SAF production increased from 0.5 million tons in 2023 to 1.0 million tons in 2024, and projections indicate 2 million tons by 2025. Regulatory mandates like the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation and U.K.'s SAF obligations are accelerating adoption.
Challenges: Feedstock availability remains a concern. Vegetable oils, residues, and fats are projected to increase 56% by 2027, but supply may reach maximum capacity. Advanced biofuels from non-food sources currently represent only 9% of global usage but are expected to rise to 40% by 2030. In India, feedstock shortages are projected to reduce ethanol supply by 20% in 2024-25.
Market Trends
Advanced biofuels derived from agricultural waste, algae, and lignocellulosic materials are gaining attention due to lower life-cycle emissions and sustainability. Production of advanced biofuels needs to quintuple by 2030 to meet global net-zero targets. SAF, largely produced from advanced biofuels, is poised to play a transformative role in decarbonizing aviation.
By Type: Solid, liquid, and gaseous biofuels. In 2026, solid biofuels dominate with 85.43% share, offering reliable energy for heating and power generation. Liquid biofuels like ethanol and renewable diesel are fastest-growing, catering to transportation and blending mandates.
By Category: First-generation biofuels dominate with 89.83% share in 2026, primarily ethanol and biodiesel from food crops. Second-generation biofuels are rising due to sustainability and waste-based feedstocks.
By Application: The transport segment holds the largest share at 84.38% in 2026, providing a low-carbon alternative compatible with existing vehicles and infrastructure.
Competitive Landscape
Key players include Archer Daniels Midland, Cargill, Neste Corporation, Bunge Limited, Wilmar International, Louis Dreyfus Company, POET LLC, Green Plains, Raizen Energia, Algenol, and others. Companies are expanding through strategic alliances, acquisitions, and technology partnerships. Notable developments include India easing ethanol production restrictions, Cemvita's SAF production facility in Brazil, Avalon Energy and Sulzer Chemtech's biorefinery in Uruguay, and Neste's collaboration with Chevron Lummus Global for lignocellulosic fuels.
Conclusion
The global biofuels market is projected to grow from USD 1,392.16 billion in 2025 to USD 2,371.53 billion by 2034, driven by rising demand in transport, expansion of SAF, and technological advancements in advanced biofuels. North America leads the market, while Europe, Latin America, and Asia Pacific show strong growth potential. Biofuels continue to be critical for decarbonizing transport, enhancing energy security, and achieving global sustainability goals.
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