Strategic Analysis of the Global Medium- and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket, 2025

Measured Global Economic Ventures are Driving Transformational Growth in the Trucking Aftermarket, Leading to 4.3% Growth in Parts Revenue in 2025

The global commercial vehicle market faced significant headwinds in 2024, with declining sales in the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) truck segments. This trend continued into the first half of 2025. Economic uncertainty, exacerbated by trade and tariff policies in the United States, stricter emission standards, rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and reduced consumption, among other challenges, adversely affected the global truck replacement parts aftermarket.

The overall vehicles-in-operation (VIO) of the MD and HD trucks segments stood at 49.8 million units globally in 2024, with many fleets retaining older vehicles. The majority of truck parts revenue came from engine and transmission systems; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and thermal management systems; fuel management components; sensors; exhaust systems; tires; and lubricants.

The overall aftermarket is projected to grow by 4.3% in 2025, supported by countries pursuing alternative paths to ensure domestic economic stability. Despite global challenges, markets such as China, India, and select Latin American countries are showing steady growth, indicating a positive outlook for the freight and trucking sectors.

This Frost & Sullivan analysis of the 2025 global MD and HD commercial vehicle aftermarket provides forecasts for 2024 to 2030, identifying major parts categories and key growth opportunities. It identifies key trends and growth opportunities that impacted the 2024 global MD and HD truck aftermarket. The outlook covers the geographic regions of North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa, highlighting major contributor markets.

Market forecasts are based on multiple parameters, including average miles driven, VIO, new truck sales, vehicle age, replacement rates, and region-specific operating environments. Each regional analysis includes analysis and data on aftermarket size, VIO, new truck sales, revenues, and distribution channel dynamics.

Additional insights include emerging aftermarket trends, major OEM and parts supplier activities, distributor and retailer strategies, and growth opportunities across both original equipment service (OES) and independent aftermarket (IAM) service channels.

Report Summary:

Medium & Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket Market

The global medium & heavy-duty commercial vehicle aftermarket is entering a transformation phase as aging vehicle fleets and technological advancements drive demand for replacement parts and connected services. By 2025, the market is projected to grow by 4.3% year-over-year, reaching an estimated USD 159.4 billion. Growth is fueled by rising fleet retention rates, telematics-enabled predictive maintenance, and increased logistics activity in Asia-Pacific and Latin America. The shift to software-defined and electrified commercial vehicles is reshaping service models, while independent aftermarket channels expand alongside OEM networks.

Key Market Trends & Insights:

• Aging commercial vehicle fleets sustain steady demand for replacement parts and services.
• Asia-Pacific and Latin America lead growth, driven by expanding transportation infrastructure.
• Increasing adoption of telematics and AI diagnostics enables predictive maintenance.
• Growth of independent aftermarket distributors alongside traditional OEM service channels.
• Electrification and emissions compliance increase demand for specialized aftermarket parts.

Market Outlook:

Global medium & heavy-duty commercial vehicle aftermarket revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 5.7% from 2024 to 2030, reaching over USD 212 billion. Market expansion is strongest in emerging regions with growing fleets, while mature markets focus on digital service integration and advanced maintenance solutions.

Market Overview - Medium-and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket, 2025

The medium & heavy-duty commercial vehicle aftermarket remains resilient amid global economic uncertainties. The average age of medium and heavy trucks globally exceeds 12 years, stimulating steady demand for maintenance and replacement parts within the commercial vehicle aftermarket sector. Fleet operators are extending vehicle lifecycles and investing in high-quality parts to optimize operational uptime.

Regionally:

• The Asia-Pacific region dominates the medium & heavy-duty commercial vehicle aftermarket, with significant contributions from China, India, and Southeast Asia, driven by growing logistics and transportation networks.
• Latin America exhibits the fastest growth, with a 6.9% year-over-year expansion, supported by rising fleet size and a growing need for aftermarket parts.
• In Europe and North America, the medium & heavy-duty automotive aftermarket sees steady but moderate growth amid stringent regulatory environments and a shift towards electrification and more complex vehicle systems.

The increasing adoption of telematics and AI-powered predictive maintenance within the commercial vehicle aftermarket is redefining service models, enabling fleets to reduce downtime and decrease maintenance costs.

Revenue Forecast - Medium-and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket, 2025

The global medium & heavy-duty commercial vehicle aftermarket market is forecast to grow from approximately USD 152.86 billion in 2024 to reach USD 212.91 billion by 2030, at a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% over the 2024-2030 period.

Key regional CAGR projections include:

• Latin America: 6.0%, the fastest growing market globally for the medium & heavy-duty automotive aftermarket.
• North America: 5.9%, driven by demand for advanced electronic service tools and telematics-enabled diagnostics in mature fleets.
• Asia-Pacific: 5.6%, driven by expanding commercial transportation and fleet electrification programs.
• Europe: 5.5%, supported by maintenance and replacement needs aligned with stringent emissions and safety regulations.
• Middle East & Africa: 5.5%, witnessing steady growth due to expanding logistics infrastructure.

Scope of Analysis - Medium-and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket, 2025

This report's scope specifically covers the medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) commercial vehicle aftermarket market, focusing on:

• MD trucks categorized under Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR) Classes 4 to 6, encompassing vehicles suited for urban and mid-range logistics activities, municipal services, and last-mile deliveries.
• HD trucks categorized under GVWR Classes 7 to 8, which include long-haul freight haulers and heavy industrial transports requiring robust components and maintenance regimes.

The study period spans from 2023 to 2030, with 2024 as the base year. Revenue calculations include aftermarket parts sales but generally exclude service revenues unless explicitly stated. Importantly, all financial data is measured at the manufacturer level and reported in US dollars to maintain consistency in market comparisons.

Segmentation Analysis - Medium-and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket, 2025

By Component Category:

• Tires are the largest revenue contributor, representing over 15% of the commercial vehicle aftermarket revenue.
• Lubricants and brake parts follow, accounting for 11.5% and 7.1% respectively, reflecting their critical roles in fleet operation and safety compliance.
• The "Others" category, encompassing engine components, emission controls, HVAC systems, and sensors, contributes nearly 40% of total segment revenue, highlighting the complexity of modern medium and heavy trucks.

By Distribution Channel:

• The Independent Aftermarket (IAM) is growing rapidly, particularly through digital commerce platforms and regional distributors catering to a diverse client base in the medium & heavy-duty commercial vehicle aftermarket market.
• Original Equipment Supplier (OES) networks remain influential in servicing premium and corporate fleets by offering integrated diagnostics and authorized parts, increasingly integrating software-driven maintenance services.

By Region (2025 Forecast):

• Asia-Pacific: USD 90.1 billion
• North America: USD 35.65 billion
• Europe: USD 21.34 billion
• Latin America: USD 7.99 billion
• Middle East & Africa: USD 4.30 billion

Competitive Landscape - Medium-and Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket, 2025

The medium & heavy-duty commercial vehicle aftermarket is characterized by increasing consolidation, digital transformation, and cross-industry partnerships:

• Leading OEMs such as Volvo, Daimler, Scania, and Tata Motors are pushing integration of telematics and electric vehicle support into their aftermarket offerings.
• Tier 1 suppliers like Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen, and SAF-Holland focus on developing AI-enabled diagnostic platforms and connected service tools tailored for medium and heavy trucks.
• Independent aftermarket distributors like VIPAR Heavy Duty and Genuine Parts Company embrace ecommerce and cloud-based parts management to capture wider market share.
• Partnerships between suppliers and telematics providers (e.g., Bendix-Geotab, Meritor-Clairence) enable advanced analytics and predictive maintenance capabilities that set new standards within the medium & heavy-duty automotive aftermarket.