Middle East War: Updated Scenario View and Near-Term Implications for IT Services

This IDC Market Perspective updates IDC's March 2026 view of how the Middle East War is affecting IT services demand, delivery risk, and investment timing. Under IDC's updated baseline, which assumes disruption roughly through June 2026, IT services growth remains positive but slower than previously expected; under the downside scenario of a 6-9 month continuation of the war, downside becomes much more visible in project-oriented work, while managed services and support remain comparatively resilient. The document examines how energy volatility, logistics disruption, cyber-risk, and sovereignty requirements are reshaping IT services demand in 2026, with particular focus on worldwide and the Middle East and Africa markets. It also outlines the resulting implications for service providers and technology buyers as spending shifts toward resilience, cybersecurity, sovereign cloud, support extensions, and managed operations."IDC's updated baseline does not point to a collapse in IT services demand. It points to a shift in timing and mix: project-oriented work is the most exposed as approvals and start dates slow, while cybersecurity, resilience, sovereign cloud, and managed operations remain comparatively more resilient," said Lars Goransson, research vice president, IDC Worldwide Services.