Direct to Cell Market: 2026-2031

Description

'Direct to Cell: Monthly Active Users to Reach Over 130 Million by 2031, But Usage Forecast to Be Lower Than Anticipated'

Overview

Juniper Research’s Direct to Cell research suite for mobile network operators (MNOs) provides detailed analysis and strategic recommendations for MNOs developing and launching direct to cell services. Unmodified smartphone access to non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) is becoming increasingly commonplace, with a greater number of MNOs launching direct to cell to their mobile subscribers.

The report includes analysis of the demand for direct to cell services from consumers and enterprises, as well as detailed analysis of the business models MNOs can utilise to monetise direct to cell services with mobile subscribers. In addition, it assesses the key challenges with direct to cell services, appraises emerging opportunities such as international direct to cell, and evaluates the deployment and future of direct to cell in more than 60 different countries via Juniper Research’s Country Readiness Index.

MNOs are also provided with profiles on seven satellite providers investing in the direct to cell market, including Starlink and AST SpaceMobile. The suite includes a data deliverable; sizing the market and providing key forecast data across 60+ countries in eight key regions, including the total number of monthly active users and total direct to cell revenue.

Collectively, the suite provides a critical tool for understanding the development and monetisation of direct to cell services; allowing MNOs and other stakeholders to effectively plan for expanding mobile services beyond terrestrial network.

All report content is delivered in the English language.

Key Features

Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: In-depth analysis of key development opportunities and findings for the future of the direct to cell market, along with recommendations for how MNOs can maximise their return on investment from direct to cell services.
Market Dynamics: Insights into the business models available to MNOs for direct to cell monetisation, analysis of the dynamics and trends in consumer demand, and recommendations for how MNOs can accelerate direct to cell adoption.
Benchmark Industry Forecasts: The suite provides five-year forecasts for the direct to cell market, including the total number of monthly active direct to cell connections and total direct to cell revenue.
Juniper Research Vendor Profiles: Key player analysis and assessment for seven vendors providing direct to cell services or positioned to become key players in the future:
- AST SpaceMobile
- EchoStar
- Iridium
- Lynk Global
- Skylo
- Starlink
- Viasat

Market Data & Forecasts

The market-leading research suite for the direct to cell market includes access to the full set of forecast data of over 2,000 datapoints. Metrics in the research suite include:

Total Number of Monthly Active Direct to Cell Connections
Total Direct to Cell Revenue

Juniper Research’s Interactive Forecast Excel contains the following functionality:

Statistics Analysis: Users benefit from the ability to search for specific metrics; displayed for all regions and countries across the data period. Graphs are easily modified and can be exported to the clipboard.
Country Data Tool: This tool enables users to look at metrics for all regions and countries in the forecast period. Users can refine the metrics displayed via a search bar.
Country Comparison Tool: Users can select and compare specific countries. The ability to export graphs is included in this tool.
What-if Analysis: Here, users can compare forecast metrics against their own assumptions, via three interactive scenarios.

1. Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations

1.1 Key Takeaways
1.2 Key Strategic Recommendations

2. Market Landscape & Future Outlook

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Market Outlook & Sizing
- 2.2.1 T-Mobile & Starlink
- 2.2.2 AT&T, Verizon, & AST SpaceMobile
- 2.2.3 Current & Future Prospects of the Direct to Cell Market
2.3 Direct to Cell Service Breakdown
- 2.3.1 Three Core Components
  - i. SMS
  - ii. Voice
  - iii. Data Services
- 2.3.2 Direct to Cell Roaming
  - i. KDDI - au Starlink Direct
2.4 Spectrum for Direct to Cell
- 2.4.1 MSS Spectrum to Terrestrial Mobile Spectrum
- 2.4.2 WRC-27 Implications for Direct to Cell
- 2.4.3 Interference Management
- 2.4.4 Spectrum Acquisitions & Auction Activity
- Table 2.1: FCC Auction 113 - Applicants and Initial Filing Phase Status
2.5 Direct to Cell & User Equipment
- 2.5.1 The Impact of 3GPP Release 17 NTN Support
- 2.5.2 Device Functionality & Advanced Modems
2.6 6G & 5G Market Impact

3. Business Models & Monetisation

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Direct to Cell Business Models
- 3.2.1 Bundling
  - i. Overview of Main Advantages of Bundling
  - ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Bundling
- 3.2.2 Bolt-Ons/Add-Ons
  - i. Overview of Main Advantages of Add-on Models
  - ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Add-on Models
- 3.2.3 Temporary Access Models
  - i. Overview of Main Advantages of Temporary Access Models
  - ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Temporary Access Models
- 3.2.4 Enterprise Direct to Cell
  - i. Overview of Main Advantages of Enterprise Direct to Cell
  - ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Enterprise Direct to Cell
3.3 ARPU & Direct to Cell Pricing

4. Country Readiness Index

4.1 Introduction to Country Readiness Index
- Figure 4.1: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index: Regional Definitions
- Table 4.2: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Scoring Criteria: Direct to Cell Market
- Figure 4.3: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index: Direct to Cell
- Table 4.4: Direct to Cell Market Country Readiness Index: Market Segments
4.2 Direct to Cell Country Readiness Index Overview
4.3 Focus Markets
- 4.3.1 The United States
- 4.3.2 China
- 4.3.3 Australia
4.4 Growth Markets
4.5 The Absence of Saturated Markets
4.6 Developing Markets
- Table 4.5: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: North America
- Table 4.6: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Latin America
- Table 4.7: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: West Europe
- Table 4.8: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Central & East
- Table 4.9: Juniper Research’s Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Far East &
- Table 4.10: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Indian
- Table 4.11: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Rest of Asia
- Table 4.12: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Africa & Middle East

5. Company Profiles

5.1 Introduction to Company Profiles
- 5.1.1 AST SpaceMobile
  - i. Corporate Information
  - ii. Geographical Spread
  - iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
- 5.1.2 EchoStar
  - i. Corporate Information
  - ii. Geographical Spread
  - iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
- 5.1.3 Iridium
  - i. Corporate Information
  - ii. Geographical Spread
  - iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
- 5.1.4 Lynk Global
  - i. Corporate Information
  - ii. Geographical Spread
  - iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
- 5.1.5 Skylo
  - i. Corporate Information
  - ii. Geographical Spread
  - iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
- 5.1.6 Starlink
  - i. Corporate Information
  - ii. Geographical Spread
  - iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
- 5.1.7 Viasat
  - i. Corporate Information
  - ii. Geographical Spread
  - iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
  - iv. High-level View of Offerings
  - v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development

6. Market Data & Forecasts

6.1 Introduction to Direct to Cell Market Forecasts
- 6.1.1 Data & Forecast Methodology
6.2 Total Monthly Active Direct to Cell Subscribers
- Figure & Table 6.1: Total Monthly Active Direct to Cell Connections (m), Split by
6.3 Total Revenue From Direct to Cell Connections
- Figure & Table 6.2: Total Revenue From Direct to Cell Connections ($m), Split by