Global Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Outlook 2023

Growth Regions China and India Drive Truck Demand Amid Continued Market Uncertainties

In this report, Frost & Sullivan studies the light commercial vehicle (LCV) and medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) truck segments for six regions: North America, Europe, China, India, Latin America, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The study period is 2022-2023, with 2022 as the base year and 2023 as the forecast year.

We segment the market by gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR); LCVs have a GVWR lower than 6 tons, while M&HD trucks have a GVWR equal to or above 6 tons. The subsegments in LCVs are pickups, vans, and cab-over-engine trucks. M&HD trucks comprise MD and HD trucks. The powertrain types include diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and electric vehicles (EVs).

Our analysis shows that the war in Ukraine had a cascading effect on multiple sectors of the global economy, with the overall business sentiment taking a huge hit. Supply chain constraints due to the war took inflation to unprecedented levels globally, prompting many central banks to increase interest rates. This increased the financing cost to purchase new equipment. Volatile energy markets resulted in a sharp rise in fuel prices, which ate into the profit margins of fleet operators. The truck market in Europe contracted by 18.3% in 2022. The truck market in China plummeted in 2022, contracting by over 50% due to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in most of the country, which led to lockdowns and tight curfew controls.

However, not all developments in 2022 were adverse. Established as well as new and upcoming original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the space launched several electric truck models. Tesla delivered its first semi-tractor trucks in December 2022, starting with Pepsi. The EV ecosystem dynamics rose to a different level, with companies from diverse backgrounds coming together, resulting in partnerships between OEMs, energy companies, and charging providers. Newer business models such as truck-as-a-service (TaaS) are gaining traction thanks to Volta Trucks, Quantron, and Nikola.

Frost & Sullivan expects economic challenges faced in 2022 to continue in 2023 as the situation has remained largely the same, especially with regard to the war. We anticipate rising fears of a recession in North America to make businesses and fleets more cautious about new purchases and investments. The market situation in Europe is still uncertain due to the status of the war, with little indication of its development. However, China and India will be the bright spots for the trucking industry in 2023, with improving macro indicators and demand from growing infrastructure activity.

The report offers stakeholders insights into the commercial vehicles market using the following:

• Recaps of 2022 and predictions for 2023
• Notable regulations and trends by region
• Global economic outlook
• LCV and M&HD segments outlook through sales, OEMs, powertrain technology, and product launches
• Analysis by region
• Growth opportunities

Key Issues Addressed:

• Trends impacting the global truck industry?
• The size of the global truck industry in 2022, the segment share, and leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in different regions?
• Expected volume growth in 2023 and drivers in different regions?
• Projected penetration of key powertrain technologies across different regions?
• Top OEM performers in 2022 and their future powertrain strategy in different regions?