Heating Equipment - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)

According to Mordor Intelligence, the heating equipment market size is expected to increase from USD 45.14 billion in 2025 to USD 47.24 billion in 2026 and reach USD 61.21 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.32% over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Equipment Type (Boilers, Furnaces, Heat Pumps, and More), End-User Industry (Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Public/Institutional), Fuel Type (Natural Gas, Electricity, Oil, and More), Technology (Condensing, Non-Condensing, and More), Installation Type (New Installation, and Replacement/Retrofit), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Heating Equipment Market Trends and Insights

Electrification Push in Cold-Climate Retrofit Programs

Sub-zero regions now direct public money toward heat-pump retrofits that displace fuel-oil and propane systems. New York's Clean Heat program allocated USD 250 million in 2025 for 100,000 residential conversions, while Quebec earmarked CAD 300 million (USD 222 million) to leverage surplus hydro power. Hardware is ready; Mitsubishi's Zuba-Central ducted unit maintains full output at minus-30 °C, and Carrier pairs water-source heat pumps with glycol loops to prevent frosting. The choke point has shifted from technology readiness to installer capacity and utility rate design that still lags hardware innovation by roughly two years.

Carbon-Neutral Corporate Campuses Demand On-Site Heat Pumps

Corporations pursuing Science Based Targets swap boilers for large water-source or ground-source systems to erase Scope 1 emissions. Microsoft retrofitted 12 data-center campuses, cutting natural-gas use 85% and retiring offset purchases. Amazon specified ground-source units for German and Polish warehouses, and Unilever is electrifying 40 factories by 2030. Each job often exceeds 500 kW, carries multi-year service revenue, and favors heat-pump-as-a-service contracts in which OEMs bill per delivered kilowatt-hour rather than equipment sales.

Grid-Capacity Bottlenecks in Electrified Neighborhoods

Rapid electrification can double winter peaks, overloading transformers and feeders sized for gas-heated homes. National Grid flagged 22% of low-voltage circuits in Greater London for reinforcement, with upgrade costs near GBP 4,000 (USD 5,200) per household and lead times stretching 18 months. Eversource delayed 1,200 applications in Massachusetts because substations lacked spare capacity. German utilities estimate EUR 50 billion (USD 54 billion) of network investment by 2035, expenses that ultimately raise delivered electricity prices. Demand-response curtailments help, but add installation complexity when contractors must enroll customers and commission smart thermostats.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Gas-Phase Heat Pump Innovations for High-Temperature Industrial Drying
2. Performance-Based Building Codes Accelerating Boiler Replacement
3. Skilled-Labor Shortages for Multi-Technology Retrofits

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Boilers still hold 37.54% market share in 2025, anchored by industrial steam and district-energy loads requiring 90 °C-plus output. Heat pumps, however, are advancing at a 6.38% CAGR and increasingly cannibalize forced-air furnace replacements in North America and hydronic radiators in Europe. Furnaces linger in ducted U.S. housing but now face direct substitution via ducted inverter heat pumps. Niche devices such as radiant panels capture specialty applications yet carry premium margins. The competitive divide shows residential and light-commercial customers pivoting hard toward electrification, while high-temperature industrial lines retain boilers until gas-phase technology or hydrogen blending scales. Hybrid heat-pump-plus-boiler packages ease adoption by allowing 80% electrified annual load with fossil backup for extreme peaks, smoothing grid impact and homeowner cost.

Strategic differentiation revolves around software. Trane's Tracer platform forecasts occupancy and weather, pre-heats during off-peak tariffs, and unlocks utility incentives for demand shedding. These features move the heating equipment market from hardware margin to lifetime service value, raising barriers for price-only entrants and encouraging incumbents to bundle analytics with warranty and maintenance.

In 2025, residential buyers made up 57.83% of the market share and are projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.42% through 2031. This growth is bolstered by U.S. tax credits, European retrofit mandates, and China's transition from coal to electricity. Meanwhile, commercial property managers, focusing on total cost of ownership, command a share of about 25%, showing a preference for units primed for building-automation integration.

Industrial customers, at 12%, value 120 °C-plus capability and custom engineering, often paying more than USD 100,000 per 500-kW unit; Thermax leveraged this specialization to win pharmaceutical and dairy waste-heat projects. Public facilities adopt early due to policy mandates despite longer paybacks. Purchase behavior thus varies, residential sales hinge on rebate simplicity and financing, commercial deals on demand-response and warranty, and industrial contracts on process integration depth.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Equipment Type
  • Boilers
  • Furnaces
  • Heat Pumps
  • Radiators
  • Other Heater Types
• By End-User Industry
  • Residential
  • Commercial
  • Industrial
  • Public/Institutiona
• By Fuel Type
  • Natural Gas
  • Electricity
  • Oil
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen-Ready
• By Technology
  • Condensing
  • Non-Condensing
  • Air Source Heat Pumps
  • Ground Source Heat Pumps
  • Hybrid Systems
  • Smart Connected Systems
• By Installation Type
  • New Installation
  • Replacement/Retrofit
• By Geography
  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Europe
    • United Kingdom
    • Germany
    • France
    • Spain
    • Italy
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia-Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • Middle East and Africa
    • Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Turkey
      • Rest of Middle East
    • Africa
      • South Africa
      • Kenya
      • Rest of Africa

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific held 40.19% of 2025 revenue as China converted coal boilers, India's middle class upgraded to ducted heat pumps, and Japan subsidized inverter units. Europe followed at roughly 30% as German, French, and United Kingdom mandates converged, though grid limits and labor shortages temper growth. North America represented about 20%; Inflation Reduction Act credits up to USD 2,000 per home accelerated adoption in cold states, while Canadian provinces leaned on hydro surplus. The Middle East and Africa lead in growth at a 7.78% CAGR amid giga-projects like NEOM that specify solar-thermal-heat-pump hybrids. South America remains small but gains momentum in Brazil's hydro-rich southern states where social housing now opts for split heat-pump systems.

China's market splits between centralized district heating in the north and individual split units in the south, forcing OEMs to tailor product lines. India logged Daikin sales growth of 18% in 2025 as apartment construction boomed. Japan's trade ministry targets 5 million residential units by 2030 to curb liquefied natural-gas imports. In the Middle East, Dubai's district-cooling network pilots heat-recovery chillers to supply hotel hot water, underlining that heating demand exists even in hot climates.

Europe accounted for roughly 30% of the heating equipment market share in 2025 as retrofit grants and rising carbon prices converged to accelerate boiler replacement, yet sustained expansion hinges on clearing installer backlogs and reinforcing urban distribution grids, particularly in cities such as London and Munich that face 18-month transformer lead times. North America held about 20% of 2025 demand, with Inflation Reduction Act tax credits of up to USD 2,000 per household and provincial cold-climate rebates in Canada boosting residential uptake. Data-center waste-heat recovery offers fresh upside across the United States hyperscale corridor, where operators are evaluating absorption-heat-pump pairings to curb diesel-boiler runtime. Latin America remains a niche today, yet Brazil's hydro-rich southern states are piloting tariff structures that reward heat-pump load shifting to off-peak periods, laying groundwork for future scaling.

1. Daikin Industries Ltd.
2. Carrier Global Corporation
3. Robert Bosch GmbH
4. Trane Technologies plc
5. Ariston Holding N.V.
6. NIBE Industrier AB
7. Danfoss A/S
8. Panasonic Holdings Corporation
9. Thermax Limited
10. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
11. Lennox International Inc.
12. Viessmann Climate Solutions SE
13. Glen Dimplex Group
14. Rheem Manufacturing Company
15. BDR Thermea Group B.V.
16. Bradford White Corporation
17. A. O. Smith Corporation

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support